---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Spring of 1901.  (crosstab.001)

Austria: Army Budapest -> Serbia.
Austria: Army Vienna -> Budapest.
Austria: Fleet Trieste -> Albania.

The Balkan Gambit, Budapest Variation. This opening usually aims to get
both Serbia and Greece. The army in Budapest suggests a Russian push or at
least trust of Italy. It's probably a good position considering Russia's
big southern movement.

England: Army Liverpool -> Edinburgh.
England: Fleet Edinburgh -> Norwegian Sea.
England: Fleet London -> North Sea.

The Churchill opening. A fairly common opening for England. It give him
lots of options for Norway and can project influence into the Barents Sea
or Belgium. He has suggested a triple alliance and seems to be carrying
through on his part of it.

France: Army Marseilles -> Spain.
France: Army Paris -> Picardy.
France: Fleet Brest -> Mid-Atlantic Ocean.

I wanted to bounce with Germany in Burgundy, but he didn't want it. We
DMZ'd it. I also DMZ'd the English Channel and lucky for me both stayed
empty. From here I'll get both Iberian centers and have some say in Belgium.

Germany: Army Berlin -> Kiel.
Germany: Army Munich -> Ruhr.
Germany: Fleet Kiel -> Denmark.

The Danish Blitzkrieg opening. Germany has Denmark and Holland for sure, and
can influence Belgium and Sweden. This is a strong opening and also the most
popular in the game. Germany looks to be on board for an FG against England.

Italy: Army Rome -> Apulia.
Italy: Army Venice HOLD.
Italy: Fleet Naples -> Ionian Sea.

This could be a Lepanto, but the hold in Venice shows a little distrust of
Austria. The army in Apulia instead of Naples almost suggests a convoy to
Greece. That would be an interesting opening.

Russia: Army Moscow -> Ukraine.
Russia: Army Warsaw -> Galicia.
Russia: Fleet Sevastopol -> Black Sea.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Fleet St Petersburg (south coast) -> Gulf of Bothnia.

This is called the Ukraine System, Southern Defense. This is a huge push
on Austria. Russia tells me he heard there was going to be an anti-Russian
AG coming after him and he responded with this. Russia has a huge presence
around Rumania, but not enough to take it if Austria and Turkey work
together. I'm still trying to find out if the bounce was arranged. Who
Russia can make friends with is more important that the position of his
armies here.

Turkey: Army Constantinople -> Bulgaria.
Turkey: Army Smyrna -> Constantinople.
Turkey: Fleet Ankara -> Black Sea.  (*bounce*)

With the bounce in the Black Sea, Turkey can't do much in the fall without
someone else's help. Alternately, Russia can offer help to a lot of people.

Evaluation:

England wants a triple alliance but asks that if Germany doesn't bounce
Russia from Sweden, I work with him against Germany. Meanwhile Germany and I
were already planning to attack England. Russia says he doesn't want a big
war with Austria, but he's got a lot of talking to do to avoid it. Until the
relationship between Turkey and Austria becomes a little more clear it's
hard to evaluate the events in the Mediterranean. Right now it looks like
Turkey wants the Balkans, not a fleet. Italy may be trying a Lepanto.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Fall of 1901.  (crosstab.002)

Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Fleet Albania -> Greece.
Austria: Army Budapest SUPPORT Turkish Army Bulgaria -> Rumania.
Austria: Fleet Albania -> Greece.

Supporting into Greece was a good choice even if it didn't turn out to be
necessary. With Serbia the Austro-Turkish alliance could have bounced the
Russians out of Rumania, but they can take it this turn anyway. It allows
Russia a build, but with Austria's two they should be able to hold him off.

England: Army Edinburgh -> North Sea -> Norway.
England: Fleet Norwegian Sea -> Barents Sea.
England: Fleet North Sea CONVOY Army Edinburgh -> Norway.

This is severely anti-Russian. If Germany doesn't draw England away
immediately England could actually take a piece of northern Russia.

France: Army Spain HOLD.
France: Army Picardy -> Belgium.
France: Fleet Mid-Atlantic Ocean -> Portugal.

This is pretty nice. I've picked up three centers and haven't done anything
to particularly commit myself in any direction. From here I can equally well
hit England, Germany, or Italy. The only problem is that gaining three
centers in year 1 can scare people into fighting you.

Germany: Army Kiel -> Holland.
Germany: Army Ruhr SUPPORT Army Kiel -> Holland.
Germany: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT Army Kiel.  (*void*)

Germany has also gained well without committing himself too much. He's pro-
Russian, but he could attack either England or me. He took the center he
could guarantee himself and didn't fight me over Belgium, which is good
considering we never even discussed it. I don't know what he was trying to
do with F Denmark.

Italy: Army Apulia -> Ionian Sea -> Tunis.
Italy: Army Venice -> Tyrolia.
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea CONVOY Army Apulia -> Tunis.

The convoy continues the Lepanto. He could go on to attack Turkey, but that
would be risky without Austrian friendship, which he's not likely to get
with that army in Tyrolia. There's so much he could be doing with that army
it's impossible to guess. Italy needs an ally to advance and Russia should
be that ally.

Russia: Army Ukraine SUPPORT Army Galicia -> Rumania.
Russia: Army Galicia -> Rumania.
Russia: Fleet Sevastopol SUPPORT Army Galicia -> Rumania.
Russia: Fleet Gulf of Bothnia -> Sweden.

On the surface this looks good with two builds and no bounce from Germany,
but in truth this is a bad position. Austria and Turkey can take Rumania
right away from him and without quick German help England could hurt him
in the north. He needs Italy to be his friend.

Turkey: Army Bulgaria -> Rumania.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Constantinople -> Bulgaria.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Fleet Ankara -> Black Sea.

He doesn't get Rumania in time for the build but the Black Sea fleet can
cut Sevastopol's support and get him in now.

Evaluation:

Russia's in the most trouble here, he has a lot of writing to do but he can
pull out of this. Austria and Turkey have formed the first evident alliance
and it will serve them well. Italy seems to still be looking for a direction
to go. England has seriously chosen a direction, but will soon be hit hard on
his flank. Germany and I are both talking about hitting England but neither
of us has committed ourselves in that direction, nor does either of us really
have to.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1901.  (crosstab.003)

Austria:   Builds an army in Vienna.
Austria:   Builds an army in Trieste.
Italy:     Builds a fleet in Naples.
Turkey:    Builds a fleet in Ankara.
France:    Builds an army in Marseilles.
France:    Builds an army in Paris.
France:    Builds a fleet in Brest.
England:   Builds a fleet in London.
Russia:    Builds an army in Warsaw.
Russia:    Builds an army in St Petersburg.
Germany:   Builds an army in Munich.
Germany:   Builds a fleet in Kiel.

No fleet for Austria means he's not launching an invasion of Italy soon.
A second Turkish Black Sea fleet indicates he means to be a serious pain
to Russia. Russia's army in Warsaw is expected and an army in St Pete means
he's on the defensive in the north. Germany could still move on either
England or me. I could move on him or England. If I wanted Italy I would
have built a fleet in Marseilles. England builds an unsurprising fleet
London and then retires from the game.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Spring of 1902.  (crosstab.004)

Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Turkish Army Bulgaria -> Rumania.
Austria: Army Budapest SUPPORT Army Vienna -> Galicia.
Austria: Fleet Greece HOLD.
Austria: Army Vienna -> Galicia.
Austria: Army Trieste -> Vienna.

Austria does his part for the attack on Rumania, which should have been a
guarantee this turn. He also takes the positionally important Galicia, from
which he will probably take Warsaw this next turn.

England: Army Norway -> North Sea -> Denmark.  (*bounce*)
England: Fleet Barents Sea -> Norway.  (*bounce*)
England: Fleet North Sea CONVOY Army Norway -> Denmark.
England: Fleet London -> English Channel.  (*bounce*)

England lashes out at Germany and I but not Russia who he was best
positioned to attack. This is a replacement England (already) and he didn't
trust us enough to continue east. His results look kind of bad because
none of his units moved, but he did keep me out of the Channel for a turn
and he can still attack St. Petersburg this turn if he wants.

France: Army Spain -> Gascony.
France: Army Belgium HOLD.
France: Fleet Portugal -> Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
France: Army Marseilles -> Piedmont.  (*bounce*)
France: Army Paris -> Picardy.
France: Fleet Brest -> English Channel.  (*bounce*)

The bounce in Piedmont was arranged with Italy as camouflage for a fall
attack on Austria. Otherwise I'm just trying to reverse gears from Iberia.
The bounce in the Channel delays my getting to England but with support
from the Atlantic I'll probably move the fleet this fall.

Germany: Army Holland SUPPORT Army Ruhr.
Germany: Army Ruhr SUPPORT Army Holland.
Germany: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT Fleet Kiel -> Helgoland Bight.  (*cut*)
Germany: Army Munich SUPPORT Army Ruhr.
Germany: Fleet Kiel -> Helgoland Bight.

Holland, Ruhr, and Munich might just as well have been holds, they were in
no danger. This turn is basically just the setup for taking the North Sea
in the fall.

Italy: Army Tunis HOLD.
Italy: Army Tyrolia -> Piedmont.  (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Aegean Sea.
Italy: Fleet Naples -> Ionian Sea.

This turn looks aimed at Turkey (and me) but he could convoy to Greece with
support from the Aegean. Add to that an attack on Austria from Tyrolia and
he could cause some real trouble to Austria this year.

Russia: Army Ukraine -> Sevastopol.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Army Rumania -> Galicia.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
Russia: Fleet Sevastopol -> Armenia.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Fleet Sweden -> Norway.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Army Warsaw -> Moscow.
Russia: Army St Petersburg -> Norway.  (*bounce*)

The move to Moscow must be to support St. Petersburg but it leaves Warsaw
totally undefended. Rumania had no retreats so he was destroyed, leaving
Russia a unit weak this turn. With hindsight we can see that the only way to
save that army would have been to order Ukraine-Warsaw and Rumania-Ukraine.
I don't understand what good Armenia would have done him, especially if he
was abandoning Rumania. I would have abandoned Rumania in this situation
too, but it turns out he could have easily defended it. At least the self
bounce in the north was a good strategy, cutting support of a possible
English attack without risking leaving Norway open.

Turkey: Army Bulgaria -> Rumania.
Turkey: Army Constantinople -> Black Sea -> Armenia.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea CONVOY Army Constantinople -> Armenia.
Turkey: Fleet Ankara SUPPORT Army Constantinople -> Armenia.

I don't understand the focus on Armenia here. It turns out Russia didn't
defend Rumania, but I would have expected him to at least try. Along those
lines I would have ordered Black Sea-Sevastopol to cut support. A bounce
from Ankara would have kept Russia out of Armenia just fine, which is all
you really need to do, since since Sevastopol is under attack next turn and
he won't be moving then.

Evaluation:

Austria and Turkey successfully scared off Russia. They lined up such a
huge force against Rumania that Russia just ran away and they ended up
taking it with very minimal force. That meant that they had extra tempi to
use. Austria used it well, and Turkey used it sort of strangely. Italy is
positioned to cause some trouble to these allies, though. Germany and I just
moved steadily, if slowly, north. Russia's facing the most immediate trouble.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Fall of 1902.  (crosstab.005)

Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Fleet Greece.
Austria: Army Budapest -> Trieste.
Austria: Fleet Greece HOLD.
Austria: Army Galicia -> Warsaw.  (*bounce*)
Austria: Army Vienna -> Tyrolia.

Austria takes the safe course against Italy here. He managed to talk Italy
into going after me, but this was still probably the safest thing to do.
He got coordinated German help into Tyrolia, showing that those two are on
good terms.

England: Army Norway -> St Petersburg.
England: Fleet Barents Sea SUPPORT Army Norway -> St Petersburg.
England: Fleet North Sea -> Norway.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
England: Fleet London -> English Channel.  (*bounce*)

He makes the right attack on St. Petersburg here, and keeps Russia out of
Norway. I had hoped this wouldn't happen. There's no hope for Russia now
and England gains a supply center. I kept him out of the Channel and Germany
knocked him out of the North Sea. England chose not to retreat that fleet
but disbanded him instead. That gives him two builds instead of one and must
mean he wants an army in Edinburgh. Otherwise he could have just retreated
there. If he has his heart set on armies at home, there is almost no way to
to invade him.

France: Army Gascony -> Brest.
France: Army Belgium SUPPORT Army Marseilles -> Burgundy.
France: Fleet Mid-Atlantic Ocean SUPPORT Fleet Brest -> English Channel.
France: Army Marseilles -> Burgundy.
France: Army Picardy SUPPORT Army Belgium.
France: Fleet Brest -> English Channel.

My moves accomplished everything they were meant to but I still find myself
in an awful position. No hope of help from Russia, England building, and
Italy turning to attack me. I really don't like my chances now. If Italy had
stayed away I had a chance at staying in this game. But now it doesn't look
likely.

Germany: Army Holland SUPPORT Army Ruhr.
Germany: Army Ruhr SUPPORT Army Holland.
Germany: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT Fleet Helgoland Bight -> North Sea.
Germany: Army Munich SUPPORT Austrian Army Vienna -> Tyrolia.
Germany: Fleet Helgoland Bight -> North Sea.

Germany is awfully wary of me, but still seems to be ok. He takes the North
Sea as planned but nothing else moves. It seems like he could be doing
something more useful with those armies, but he apparently doesn't trust me
enough. He could convoy to Norway or England and get a nice foothold but
instead he just defends himself from me.

Italy: Army Tunis -> North Africa.
Italy: Army Tyrolia -> Piedmont.
Italy: Fleet Aegean Sea -> Ionian Sea.
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Tyrrhenian Sea.

Damn, I really didn't want to see this. He completely shifted into reverse
and came after me. My only consolation is that this is a waste of time for
him. It will take a while for him to bring this force to bear. I don't
understand the move to North Africa. What good does this do him? He told me
that if Turkey builds another fleet he would turn back around but I'm no
longer inclined to believe him.

Russia: Army Ukraine -> Warsaw.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Fleet Sevastopol SUPPORT Austrian Army Budapest -> Rumania.  (*void,
dislodged*)
Russia: Fleet Sweden -> Norway.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Army Moscow SUPPORT Fleet Sevastopol.
Russia: Army St Petersburg SUPPORT Fleet Sweden -> Norway.  (*dislodged*)

He got duped by Austria again. He believed Austria was going to stab Turkey
and take Rumania. He would have been better off giving up on Sevastopol and
using Moscow to support St. Petersburg. Then he would have lost only one
center. He retreats St. Pete to Finland, meaning he intends to fight for
Sweden. If I were him I think I would have retreated to Livonia and
concentrated on one area, but he's pretty much dead either way.

Turkey: Army Rumania SUPPORT Army Armenia -> Sevastopol.
Turkey: Army Armenia -> Sevastopol.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea SUPPORT Army Armenia -> Sevastopol.
Turkey: Fleet Ankara -> Constantinople.

It was pretty brave of him not to cover Smyrna. The three-unit attack on
Sevastopol is good, but what if Italy had convoyed to Smyrna? Italy had a
good chance of holding on to it. But Italy came after me instead so it
couldn't have worked out better for him.

Evaluation:

Russia's dead. England is hinting at getting really defensive, which will
keep him in the game but deny him much chance to expand. Germany and I are
just plodding along, not getting too much done. We need to change that if
we want to live long. Italy has to pick an enemy and fight them if he ever
wants to grow beyond four centers. Austria and Turkey are doing very well.
If the rest of us can't break out of our current stasis it will come down
to these two.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1902.  (crosstab.007)

Russia:    Removes the army in Ukraine.
Turkey:    Builds an army in Ankara.
Turkey:    Build waived.
England:   Builds an army in Edinburgh.
England:   Builds an army in Liverpool.

I was right about England, he's going to turtle up on us. I'm hoping to get
Germany to help me into London now. Otherwise cracking England will be very
difficult. Russia's removal indicates that he wants to fight for the north.
That will give him a corner position which should (theoretically) be easier
to defend, but I'm not sure he will gain enough up there to offset the losses
he will probably take in the south. I'm not sure what to make of Turkey's
waived build. He must not want another fleet, but why not build another
army? It might take a while to work him out of there but no longer than
saving the build would. He must be keeping his options open in case he
doesn't get another build this year.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Spring of 1903.  (crosstab.008)

Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Army Galicia -> Rumania.
Austria: Army Trieste -> Budapest.
Austria: Fleet Greece -> Bulgaria (south coast).  (*bounce*)
Austria: Army Galicia -> Rumania.
Austria: Army Tyrolia -> Venice.

And it's Austria who gets in the stab. The tough part, though, will be
holding it through the fall. Turkey's got *lot* of force he can counter-
strike with. I'm also glad to see him take the easy grab of Venice. This
will hopefully get Italy off my back a little.

England: Army St Petersburg -> Norway.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
England: Fleet Barents Sea SUPPORT Army St Petersburg -> Norway.
England: Fleet London -> Wales.  (*bounce*)
England: Army Edinburgh -> Yorkshire.
England: Army Liverpool -> Wales.  (*bounce*)

This is about the best possible outcome for England this turn. He kept me
out of London and Wales and kept Germany out of Norway. He will probably
lose Norway in the fall, but after retreating to Livonia he will probably
just waltz into whichever of Warsaw or Moscow he chooses. There is now
very little chance I will be able to invade England without first getting
someone in Clyde or Edinburgh.

France: Army Brest -> Gascony.
France: Army Belgium HOLD.
France: Fleet Mid-Atlantic Ocean -> Western Mediterranean.
France: Army Burgundy -> Marseilles.  (*bounce*)
France: Army Picardy -> English Channel -> London.  (*bounce*)
France: Fleet English Channel CONVOY Army Picardy -> London.

No wonder I'm losing, look at what I'm ordering. Brest turns right around
and returns to Gascony (waste of a year), Belgium holds (again), and
Burgundy can't even make it back to Marseilles. This Italian offensive has
forced me to waste an enormous amount of tempo. And now thanks to German
bungling I don't even get a build this year because now I can't take London.

Germany: Army Holland SUPPORT Army Ruhr.
Germany: Army Ruhr SUPPORT Army Holland.
Germany: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT Fleet North Sea.  (*void*)
Germany: Army Munich SUPPORT Army Ruhr.
Germany: Fleet North Sea -> Norway.  (*bounce*)

At least I'm not wasting the most tempo in this game. Germany again throws
up a huge defensive wall against me despite the fact that I have never
given him any sign of aggression. He's given the same useless orders to
Holland and Ruhr three turns in a row. There have got to be better things
he can do with them. Like convoy to England or Scandinavia. At least he
hasn't used them to attack me yet, but that's probably just a matter of time.
He also insists on trying an unsuccessful attack on Norway instead of
helping me into England. More on that below. This is the second time in 5
turns that he's sent in a void order for Denmark. Does he really understand
the rules of this game?

Italy: Army North Africa HOLD.
Italy: Army Piedmont -> Marseilles.  (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Tyrrhenian Sea.
Italy: Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea -> Gulf of Lyon.

Italy makes all the most predictable moves in continuation of his attack on
me. He kept telling me he was coming so I kept passing that on to Austria.
It ultimately cost him Venice, and he can't compensate for that this year.

Russia: Fleet Sweden SUPPORT German Fleet North Sea -> Norway.
Russia: Army Moscow -> St Petersburg.
Russia: Army Finland SUPPORT Army Moscow -> St Petersburg.

Considering the pretty dire straits Russia finds himself in he pulls off a
pretty good turn. At this point he could take Norway for himself instead of
giving it to Germany as he has promised. Then if Turkey is too tied up with
Austria to push north he would actually get to build.

Turkey: Army Rumania -> Ukraine.
Turkey: Army Sevastopol SUPPORT Army Rumania -> Ukraine.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea CONVOY Army Ankara -> Bulgaria.
Turkey: Fleet Constantinople SUPPORT Army Ankara -> Bulgaria.
Turkey: Army Ankara -> Black Sea -> Bulgaria.

The big question mark here is did he convoy the army and give it support
because he was wary of Austria, or just because he wanted the army over
there and had nothing else to do with Constantinople? Considering that he
didn't cover Rumania at all, I'm guessing he didn't see the stab coming.
At the very least this will put a serious damper on his expansion
opportunities.

Evaluation:

I had a great plan for Russia, Germany, and I for this year. Here's the
summary I sent to Russia:

  This turn I convoy to London, Germany supports my convoy and moves
  into Skagerrak, and you attack St. Petersburg with support while
  moving to Norway from Sweden. The attack on London is sure to work.
  You will either move into St. Petersburg and bounce in Norway OR
  enter Norway and bounce in St. Pete. If you move into Norway then
  you attack St. Pete from there with two supports. If you already
  have St. Pete you help Germany into Norway.

It all would have worked too, gaining us each a supply center by year's end.
But Germany was too stupid to see how this would all work, so he insisted on
going straight to Norway, despite the fact that this was our best chance to
establish a beachhead on England. And then his attack failed anyway, only
proving further that I was right. Damn, this is frustrating.

It costs me any chance of a build this year, which could be the end of me if
Italy abandons his homeland and continues to attack me. Now that Austria's
attacked him, though, that is less likely. The battle between Austria and
Turkey will boil down to a sharp tactical battle, since nobody's in a
position to help out either one.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Fall of 1903.  (crosstab.010)

Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Army Rumania.
Austria: Army Budapest SUPPORT Army Rumania.
Austria: Fleet Greece -> Bulgaria (south coast).  (*bounce*)
Austria: Army Rumania SUPPORT Fleet Greece -> Bulgaria (south coast).
Austria: Army Venice -> Rome.

I understand the careful grip on what he took from Turkey (in fact I
recommended it to him) but I don't understand why he moved to Rome. He still
only gets one center from Italy. Maybe he wanted to get deep into Italian
land quickly. From here he can still easily take Venice, but he just doesn't
seem likely to keep Rome.

England: Army Livonia -> Warsaw.
England: Fleet Barents Sea -> Norwegian Sea.
England: Fleet London HOLD.
England: Army Yorkshire SUPPORT Fleet London.
England: Army Liverpool -> Edinburgh.

Taking Warsaw softens the adjustment phase to one removal. Pulling back to
the Norwegian Sea is smart, it consolidates his forces. He'll probably keep
that fleet rather than the army in Warsaw that is sure to get killed. He'll
basically be a unit up for the year (since Warsaw isn't really his). Will he
just defend and take another removal next year, or try to take something?
My guess is that he will defend.

France: Army Gascony SUPPORT Army Burgundy -> Marseilles.
France: Army Belgium SUPPORT Army Picardy -> Burgundy.  (*cut, dislodged*)
France: Fleet Western Mediterranean -> Spain (south coast).
France: Army Burgundy -> Marseilles.
France: Army Picardy -> Burgundy.  (*bounce*)
France: Fleet English Channel SUPPORT Army Belgium.

It was just a matter of time. Germany finally realized that he should be
attacking me. Thankfully Italy backed off. I couldn't fight both of them at
the same time. I think if Italy had pushed on, though, I would have held him
off this turn. In general, I've been thrashing around a lot this game and
getting nothing done. You just can't be very optimistic about a country
that's at five centers at the end of 1903. Belgium had nowhere to retreat to
so he was destroyed.

Germany: Army Holland -> Belgium.
Germany: Army Ruhr SUPPORT Army Holland -> Belgium.
Germany: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT Fleet North Sea.
Germany: Army Munich -> Burgundy.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Fleet North Sea SUPPORT Army Holland -> Belgium.

So maybe Germany's only been playing dumb all this time. I guess I've been
his target the whole time, buy why did he wait this long? He could have
gotten away with this a year ago. He carefully puts his entire force into
Belgium. Will he be as careful with the rest of his attack? I just don't
know.

Italy: Army North Africa -> Tunis.
Italy: Army Piedmont -> Tuscany.
Italy: Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea -> Ionian Sea.
Italy: Fleet Gulf of Lyon -> Tyrrhenian Sea.

Italy didn't have much he could do this turn. If he had pushed the attack
on me he wouldn't have gained anything. But by turning around again he has
wasted another whole year of tempo. He's been offering me Tunis if I will
help him. Since he only has three centers now, an offer like that shows he's
desperate.

Russia: Fleet Sweden SUPPORT Army Finland -> Norway.
Russia: Army St Petersburg -> Moscow.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Army Finland -> Norway.

The hope here was that Turkey would concentrate on Austria or he'd bounce
with England, in which case Russia would get to build. But that was all in
other people's hands. Russia logically takes Finland and finally has himself
in a position he might be able to defend.

Turkey: Army Ukraine SUPPORT Army Sevastopol -> Moscow.
Turkey: Army Sevastopol -> Moscow.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea SUPPORT Army Bulgaria.
Turkey: Fleet Constantinople SUPPORT Army Bulgaria.
Turkey: Army Bulgaria SUPPORT Army Sevastopol -> Rumania.  (*void*)

Turkey makes no effort to retake Rumania (although he does order a void
support for an attack that he didn't order which is simply a dumb mistake on
his part) and instead captures Moscow which will give him a build for this
year. He also holds Bulgaria which will be important for attacking Austria.

Evaluation:

Italy's whole existence is dependent on how serious Austria is about killing
him. Austria can choose to either push east or just defend it and attack
Italy. Either way he's in the strongest position right now. Turkey is also
strong but his position doesn't offer him many good opportunities to gain
ground. For the first time Russia is under no serious threats, but also lacks
any good chances for growth. If Germany can roll over me before anyone wakes
up and walks in his open back door he too could become a contender. Since
he's been playing stupid with me I really have no idea how tough an opponent
he will be. At least I don't have Italy's hands at my throat so I can commit
myself to defense against Germany. With everyone else so tied up England can
sit tight with his homeland, or maybe use the army in Warsaw as a wild card
to stir things up.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1903.  (crosstab.011)

England:   Removes the army in Warsaw.
Italy:     Removes the army in Tunis.
Turkey:    Builds an army in Ankara.
Austria:   Builds an army in Vienna.
Austria:   Builds a fleet in Trieste.
Germany:   Builds an army in Kiel.

England chooses to play it straight and keeps the Norwegian Sea fleet instead
of the army in Moscow. Now he wants into the North Sea and I'll be glad to
help him (anything to hurt Germany at this point). No surprise from Italy.
Getting that army into action would have been too much trouble. Turkey
intends to stay on land meaning his real fight is with Austria and at least
for now he's at peace with Italy. A fleet in Smyrna might have answered his
short term needs better, but if he holds out the army will serve him better.
The Austrian fleet is an interesting choice. It will probably be most useful
to him against Turkey in the long run, but right now he will probably use
it against Italy. No surprise from Germany, he is concentrating only on me,
something I hope to make him pay for with Russian and English help.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Spring of 1904.  (crosstab.012)

Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Army Rumania -> Bulgaria.
Austria: Army Budapest -> Rumania.
Austria: Fleet Greece SUPPORT Army Rumania -> Bulgaria.
Austria: Army Rumania -> Bulgaria.
Austria: Army Rome -> Venice.
Austria: Army Vienna -> Galicia.  (*bounce*)
Austria: Fleet Trieste -> Albania.

This was just all wrong. A better bet would have been to attack from Serbia.
Then he could have used Budapest to move on Galicia and either given it
support from Vienna or moved Vienna to Tyrolia for use against Italy. Hoping
to see Italy cut down to two this year I actually wrote to Austria and told
him exactly what Italy was going to do this turn, but he still allowed
Italy to secure all his home centers by then end of the year. I am clearly
better off on Italy's side, than Austria's now. My advice to Austria had
been to move to Naples, bounce in the Adriatic, and go to Tyrolia. That
would have forced Italy to concentrate on Naples in the fall while Austria
secured Venice. Then he retreats to Apulia and has two armies on Rome next
year. If he'd done that and executed a better attack on Bulgaria he would
have been building this year. As it is he will probably be removing.

England: Fleet Norwegian Sea -> North Sea.
England: Fleet London SUPPORT Fleet Norwegian Sea -> North Sea.
England: Army Yorkshire SUPPORT Fleet London.
England: Army Edinburgh SUPPORT Army Yorkshire.

This is good for England. He is careful with what he has but gets into
position to hit Germany in the fall. He has several attack options now,
which is nice.

France: Army Gascony -> Burgundy.
France: Fleet Spain (south coast) -> Western Mediterranean.
France: Army Marseilles SUPPORT Army Gascony -> Burgundy.
France: Army Picardy SUPPORT Army Gascony -> Burgundy.
France: Fleet English Channel SUPPORT English Fleet Norwegian Sea -> North Sea.

No new supply centers or anything but at least I made progress into Burgundy
and can offer an attack to Germany this fall. Getting the English into the
North Sea hurts Germany which helps me.

Germany: Army Belgium SUPPORT Army Ruhr.
Germany: Army Ruhr SUPPORT Army Belgium.
Germany: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT Fleet North Sea.  (*cut*)
Germany: Army Munich -> Burgundy.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Fleet North Sea SUPPORT English Fleet London -> English Channel.
(*void, dislodged*)
Germany: Army Kiel -> Berlin.

Yawn. This is more or less what Germany's orders have looked like for a long
time. Having Belgium and Ruhr support each other is wasteful since neither
was threatened (especially Ruhr which didn't even border an enemy). He could
have used those to bounce me from Burgundy. Without support he shouldn't
have even bothered to order Munich there. This is the third turn in a row
that he's ordered Denmark to support North Sea. And why move Kiel to Berlin?
Is he going for Warsaw? He retreats North Sea to Helgoland Bight where he
can lend Denmark needed support, but leaves Holland open to attack from
England's North Sea fleet.

Italy: Army Tuscany -> Rome.
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Adriatic Sea.
Italy: Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea SUPPORT Army Tuscany -> Rome.

I got pretty friendly with Italy this turn but really hoped to help Austria
put him away. To this end I kept trying to get him to move Tyrrhenian Sea
east so I could get Tunis without risk. But he found a hole in every plan
I offered him so he stuck with what was after all a good solid plan. And it
worked out better than he'd hoped. Now he will resecure all his home centers
this year. So will he come through on his offers to give me Tunis?

Russia: Fleet Sweden -> Denmark.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Army St Petersburg -> Moscow.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Army Norway HOLD.

The move to Moscow is smart. It tells Turkey that he can't take Warsaw
from there without moving someone else in, which he can't afford to do right
now. England, Russia, and I discussed Sweden and decided that the Denmark
move was safest.

Turkey: Army Ukraine -> Galicia.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Moscow SUPPORT Army Ankara -> Sevastopol.  (*cut*)
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea CONVOY Army Ankara -> Sevastopol.
Turkey: Fleet Constantinople -> Aegean Sea.
Turkey: Army Bulgaria -> Greece.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
Turkey: Army Ankara -> Black Sea -> Sevastopol.

Turkey basically gives up on holding Bulgaria this turn. Convoying to
Sevastopol works well for him and going for Galicia was smart if only to
deny it to Austria. With the retreat to Constantinople Turkey can cut
Austrian Bulgaria's support of Rumania and use Ukraine, Sevastopol, and
Black Sea to take Rumania back.

Evaluation:

If Italy and Turkey play their cards right this turn could signal the end
for Austria. He had been doing very well but badly mishandled this turn.
Until I hear more from Turkey I can't be sure if he had a fall attack on
Rumania in mind from the beginning of this year. If he did I am impressed.
I have been talking friendly with Italy while planning his demise but now
I think it will probably be in my best interest to befriend him for real.
With Turkey's help he could cut into Austria and make a real comeback.
Russia's position is defendable and with English help expandable. England
is kind of under the gun this coming turn to take something or risk losing
the unit supported by Warsaw. It's possible he'll keep Warsaw just because
nobody can afford to walk into it right now, but that won't last. Germany
is going to have to start coming up with better moves if he wants to
withstand a combined English-Russian-French attack. For the first time in
a while I'm actually optimistic about my future. I could take one or both
of Belgium and Tunis this year and start rebuilding. Then with pressure on
Germany's north I may be able to break through his western line.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Fall of 1904.  (crosstab.014)

Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Army Bulgaria.
Austria: Army Rumania SUPPORT Army Bulgaria.  (*cut, dislodged*)
Austria: Fleet Greece SUPPORT Army Bulgaria.
Austria: Army Bulgaria SUPPORT Army Rumania.  (*cut*)
Austria: Army Venice -> Tyrolia.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
Austria: Army Vienna -> Galicia.
Austria: Fleet Albania SUPPORT Italian Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea -> Ionian Sea.

In the east the choice to concentrate support on Bulgaria rather than Rumania
was a good one, since no amount of support would have kept Rumania anyway.
The Turkish concentration on Rumania lets Austria slip into Galicia, a
positional gain which should help him this year. In the west it looks like
he's made peace with Italy, trying to leave Venice and supporting the move
to the Ionian Sea. He couldn't do anything to stop Italy so he might as
well make nice with him for now. He concentrated his forces back in his
homeland with retreats to Budapest and Trieste.

England: Fleet North Sea CONVOY Army Yorkshire -> Holland.
England: Fleet London SUPPORT Fleet North Sea.
England: Army Yorkshire -> North Sea -> Holland.
England: Army Edinburgh HOLD.

England lucks out by not losing Warsaw and being in the right place to take
advantage of Germany's self-destruction. He gets a build, which can't be
good news for me. He also took Holland with an army which is a good choice.
It isn't needed for defense right now so it's put to better use on the
continent.

France: Army Burgundy SUPPORT Fleet English Channel -> Belgium.
France: Fleet Western Mediterranean -> Tunis.
France: Army Marseilles SUPPORT Army Burgundy.
France: Army Picardy SUPPORT Fleet English Channel -> Belgium.
France: Fleet English Channel -> Belgium.

Taking Belgium from the Channel looked better to me in the light of a
possible stab from England. This way its support couldn't be cut and I'd
still have the army in Picardy to protect Brest in the worst case. But now
I can't move on against Germany until I get an army in there and with an
English build I can't just push straight north. I took Tunis to get another
build. Italy had offered it to me before but then asked me not to take it.
I've probably made him mad at me but the additional armies will help me more
that his friendship.

Germany: Army Belgium -> Ruhr.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
Germany: Army Ruhr -> Munich.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Fleet Denmark -> Baltic Sea.
Germany: Army Munich -> Tyrolia.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Fleet Helgoland Bight -> Kiel.
Germany: Army Berlin -> Silesia.

Germany told me he was going to do this. He said he would go for Austria and
that I could have all his centers. I thought he was being sarcastic. Well,
if he's going to self-destruct at least I'm in a position to take advantage
of it.

Italy: Army Rome SUPPORT Fleet Adriatic Sea -> Venice.
Italy: Fleet Adriatic Sea -> Venice.
Italy: Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea -> Ionian Sea.

Taking Venice from the Adriatic was uncuttable, but doesn't leave him a lot
of options for going forward. Given the situation in the east he may be able
to demand Greece from Turkey now and play a real part in the Austro-Turkish
conflict.

Russia: Fleet Sweden -> Denmark.
Russia: Army St Petersburg -> Livonia.
Russia: Army Norway HOLD.

Russia's move to Moscow last turn worked well to freeze that army this turn,
allowing Russia to move to Livonia and free up a home center for his build.
This was very well played. It will let him put pressure on Turkey and might
win him back Warsaw by the end of the year.

Turkey: Army Ukraine SUPPORT Army Sevastopol -> Rumania.
Turkey: Army Moscow HOLD.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea SUPPORT Army Sevastopol -> Rumania.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea SUPPORT Italian Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea -> Ionian Sea.
Turkey: Army Constantinople -> Bulgaria.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Sevastopol -> Rumania.

All the correct moves here to take Rumania, this is what everyone expected.
He couldn't try for Warsaw, because it would risk losing Moscow, so he stayed
put. Both Turkey and his enemy helped Italy move to the Ionian. I'm not sure
what that means, but it's kind of funny.

Evaluation:

The situation in the east changed this turn with Russia's build. Austria
and Turkey are set up to just slash back and forth at Rumania and Bulgaria,
but now Russia can put some pressure on Moscow. Turkey will have to deal
with that which could tip the scales in Austria's favor. But Italy is in
place to try for Greece with Turkish help, which could tip those scales
back in Turkey's favor. In the end it might be Russia and Italy who win in
this battle between Austria and Turkey. I picked up two centers, which is
good, but only if it doesn't make enemies of Italy or England. I'm pretty
sure it will scare England but I'm not sure about Italy. With Germany
self-destructing I'd hate to not take advantage of it, but I'll deal with
England (or Italy) if I have to.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1904.  (crosstab.016)

Austria:   Removes the fleet in Albania.
Germany:   Removes the fleet in the Baltic Sea.
Germany:   Removes the fleet in Kiel.
Russia:    Builds an army in St Petersburg.
France:    Builds an army in Paris.
France:    Builds a fleet in Brest.
England:   Builds a fleet in Liverpool.

Austria removed the only thing he could afford to remove. He needs to get
Russia to help him out by attacking Turkey, which Russia can do with his
new army in St. Pete. Keeping with his self-destructive thrust toward
Austria, Germany removes both his fleets and any chance of stopping Russia
and England. I was sure England would build a fleet (what good would an
army do him?), and there's not much he can do with it but attack me, so I
built a fleet also. It looks like we're going to come to blows finally.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Spring of 1905.  (crosstab.017)

Austria: Army Serbia -> Bulgaria.  (*bounce*)
Austria: Army Budapest SUPPORT Army Bulgaria -> Rumania.
Austria: Fleet Greece -> Aegean Sea.  (*bounce*)
Austria: Army Bulgaria -> Rumania.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
Austria: Army Trieste -> Tyrolia.  (*bounce*)
Austria: Army Galicia -> Ukraine.  (*bounce*)

I think this swapping of Rumania and Bulgaria is destined to be won by
Turkey (baring Russian or Italian interference) but Austria could have done
this better. He's sort of stretching out and cutting supports when he should
be concentrating his attack. A strike of Serbia to Rumania with support
from Galicia, Budapest, and Bulgaria would have achieved this better.
Bulgaria's support is sure to be cut but what the hell. Support for Bulgaria
would then also have been appropriate. He would have still lost Bulgaria
but could have retreated to Serbia. Bouncing the German from Tyrolia was
wise. The dislodged unit is destroyed.

England: Fleet North Sea -> Belgium.  (*bounce*)
England: Fleet London -> English Channel.
England: Army Holland SUPPORT German Army Ruhr -> Belgium.  (*void*)
England: Army Edinburgh -> North Sea -> Holland.  (*no convoy*)
England: Fleet Liverpool -> Irish Sea.

England asked Germany for help attacking me and Germany quoted his message
in a broadcast reply, calling him a liar. The message came late, but I was
already pretty sure England would attack me. He ordered a void support,
hoping Germany would comply with his wishes, but the absent convoy order
still shows a lack of attention. I didn't fight for the Channel, because
he would have taken it in the fall anyway.

France: Army Burgundy -> Munich.  (*bounce*)
France: Fleet Tunis -> Ionian Sea.  (*bounce*)
France: Army Marseilles -> Burgundy.  (*bounce*)
France: Army Picardy SUPPORT Fleet Belgium.
France: Fleet Belgium HOLD.
France: Army Paris HOLD.
France: Fleet Brest -> Mid-Atlantic Ocean.

I considered attacking Holland, but if he stayed true it would only have
pissed him off, and any attack against me would counter my attack anyway. My
only real hope was that Germany would harass England and vacate Munich like
he said, but no go. So I held what I had and will probably do the same in
the fall. Now I need someone to take Warsaw and maybe to get Germany to
cover Kiel. The bounce with Italy was arranged.

Germany: Army Ruhr -> Munich.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Army Munich -> Tyrolia.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Army Silesia -> Bohemia.

Germany wrote to me saying he doesn't understand why he is bounced from
Tyrolia even though nobody occupied it. This tells me his understanding of
the rules is sorely lacking. He seems a little frustrated and ready to go.
I hope he doesn't abandon.

Italy: Army Rome -> Venice.
Italy: Fleet Venice -> Adriatic Sea.
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Tunis.  (*bounce*)

Italy wanted the bounce with me to feel more secure. It was reasonable and
I had nothing else to do with that fleet so I agreed. I don't want another
fight with Italy so I want him to feel secure. He's rearranging his units
here into a much better position for moving forward, either against Austria
or out to sea against Turkey.

Russia: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT English Army Holland -> Kiel.  (*void*)
Russia: Army Livonia SUPPORT Army St Petersburg -> Moscow.
Russia: Army Norway HOLD.
Russia: Army St Petersburg -> Moscow.

Russia has the best looking turn of all this spring. He gains a supply
center, opens up a home center to build in, and can hold his possessions
through the fall. This could be a real comeback forming here.

Turkey: Army Ukraine -> Warsaw.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Moscow -> Warsaw.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea SUPPORT Army Rumania -> Bulgaria.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea SUPPORT Army Rumania -> Bulgaria.  (*cut*)
Turkey: Army Constantinople SUPPORT Army Rumania -> Bulgaria.
Turkey: Army Rumania -> Bulgaria.

The attack on Bulgaria worked but leaving Rumania open was awfully risky.
Austria should have taken it from him. In the north he seems worried about
keeping people out of Warsaw but without vacating his positions. This could
be seen as support for England, but given that Turkey almost never writes to
anyone it seems unlikely that he's developed any kind of plan that's that
diplomatically interesting. On the other hand he seems overly worried about
the condition of Warsaw at the expense of the obvious attack on Moscow.
He takes his only available retreat from Moscow to Sevastopol.

Evaluation:

Austria hurt himself with a poor attack on Rumania this turn. Now he's
unlikely to take it back and that shifts things into Turkey's favor.
However, we have Russia offsetting that by taking Moscow and looking like
he's about to become a major factor in this game. Germany seems lost and I
dearly hope I can help him out in my favor. I need some kind of support.
England can take the Mid-Atlantic and cause me some real headaches. I can
retreat to the North-Atlantic and threaten Liverpool, but that relies on him
having to remove a unit. If nobody takes Warsaw (or if he gains another
center) then he can keep both the army to defend Liverpool, and the Mid-
Atlantic fleet. It is a very real possibility that England will take me out
of this game. Italy is playing well enough that I wonder how well he would
have done if he had just made up his mind early and not flip-flopped several
times.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Fall of 1905.  (crosstab.019)

Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Fleet Greece -> Bulgaria (south coast).
Austria: Army Budapest SUPPORT Army Trieste.
Austria: Fleet Greece -> Bulgaria (south coast).  (*bounce, dislodged*)
Austria: Army Trieste SUPPORT Army Galicia -> Vienna.  (*cut*)
Austria: Army Galicia -> Vienna.

This is a tough position to be in. I probably wouldn't have attacked Rumania
either, but it is a shame to see it go totally undefended when Austria so
very much needs to pick up a center. Italy and Austria have been friendly
lately and now Italy is working with Turkey, so I have to guess Turkey had
inside information on what Austria was going to do. Just looking at the
position I can't say I would have done any better. Austria has lost important
maneuvering room here and is now completely on the defensive. He retreats
from Greece to Albania, his only choice.

England: Fleet North Sea CONVOY Army Edinburgh -> Holland.
England: Fleet English Channel SUPPORT French Fleet Mid-Atlantic Ocean -> Brest.
England: Army Holland -> Kiel.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
England: Army Edinburgh -> North Sea -> Holland.  (*bounce*)
England: Fleet Irish Sea -> Mid-Atlantic Ocean.

Hot Damn! Just look at this slick move England pulled on me. He guessed my
self bounce in Brest and broke it up with an unwanted support. It gave him
the Atlantic, and left Brest occupied so if I had gotten a build I couldn't
make the fleet I wanted. Very smooth. Thank goodness he didn't anticipate
the German help I got. The rest of his moves backfire and he ends up a unit
down, but getting into the Atlantic will cause me a lot of trouble.

France: Army Burgundy -> Munich.  (*bounce*)
France: Fleet Tunis HOLD.
France: Army Marseilles -> Spain.
France: Army Picardy SUPPORT Fleet Belgium.
France: Fleet Belgium SUPPORT German Army Ruhr -> Holland.
France: Army Paris -> Brest.  (*bounce*)
France: Fleet Mid-Atlantic Ocean -> Brest.

Germany gave me carte-blanc this turn so I told him to hit Holland and stop
England from getting Kiel. I hoped to follow him into Munich and build a
fleet in Brest, but that didn't pan out and England messed up the plan to
build in Brest anyway. I moved to Spain in case England got the Atlantic,
thank goodness.

Germany: Army Ruhr -> Holland.
Germany: Army Munich -> Kiel.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Army Bohemia -> Silesia.

Germany actually told me he would do anything I told him to this turn. He
seems frustrated and I offered to try to help him get back into the game.
I'm glad he took Kiel from England, but I had hoped to balance that by
taking Munich.

Italy: Army Venice -> Trieste.  (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Adriatic Sea SUPPORT Army Venice -> Trieste.
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Greece.

It was pretty clear Italy would stab at Austria sooner or later. They've
been friendly but the positioning was just too good. Austria covered Trieste
ok, but apparently didn't anticipate the Turkish help into Greece. Italy gets
a build and a real chance at fighting Austria (or maybe me).

Russia: Fleet Denmark -> Kiel.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Army Livonia SUPPORT Army Moscow.
Russia: Army Norway HOLD.
Russia: Army Moscow SUPPORT Austrian Army Galicia -> Warsaw.  (*void*)

Conservative but correct. Hold what you've got and keep the home center open
for building. He offers what support he safely can for Austria's attack on
Warsaw. It is cut, but it doesn't matter, since Austria pulled out of the
attack anyway.

Turkey: Army Ukraine -> Moscow.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Sevastopol SUPPORT Army Ukraine -> Moscow.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea SUPPORT Army Constantinople -> Bulgaria.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea SUPPORT Italian Fleet Ionian Sea -> Greece.
Turkey: Army Constantinople -> Bulgaria.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Bulgaria -> Serbia.  (*bounce*)

I'm assuming Turkey knew of Austria's moves through Italy, or he would have
done at least something to cover Rumania. If you're not going to cover
Rumania, you might as well hit Moscow, even if it's likely to be covered.
Otherwise Turkey is mostly running interference for Italy here.

Evaluation:

I'm the biggest power on the board right now but I'm still probably in the
second worst position (after Austria). I'm totally on the defensive against
England, anything I gain in the coming year will be because (if) Germany
wanted to give it to me. If I'm careful, though, I may be able to hold
England off, and maybe someone will finally take Warsaw away from him. He
really lucked out by keeping that. Without it he'd be down to three and too
weak to press the attack. Italy's ready to start fighting again and I hope
he chooses to fight Austria, not me. Austria is in real trouble if Italy
and Turkey continue to coordinate moves, but I'm pretty sure Italy's worried
about Turkey becoming too strong so that cooperation won't last long.
Turkey should press forward with that advantage while it lasts. Russia can
continue down the path he's on in the coming year to gain back another home
supply center.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1905.  (crosstab.021)

Austria:   Removes the fleet in Albania.
Germany:   Builds a fleet in Berlin.
Italy:     Builds an army in Rome.
Russia:    Builds an army in St Petersburg.

Austria removes the logical fleet and Russia builds the logical army.
Italy had several options. The army in Rome could be bad for Austria, or
could be bad for me. I asked Germany to build a fleet in Kiel, thinking he
could convoy something to England, and he agreed, but then built in Berlin
instead. This is quite anti-Russian and he could cause enough trouble over
there to pull Russia away from helping me. Russia will finally take Warsaw
away from England this year, but England could come away with Portugal if
he does everything right (like he did last turn). Turkey looks like he's won
out over Austria now and he will be fighting Italy eventually.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Spring of 1906.  (crosstab.022)

Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Turkish Army Bulgaria -> Greece.  (*void*)
Austria: Army Budapest SUPPORT Army Trieste.
Austria: Army Trieste SUPPORT Army Vienna -> Tyrolia.
Austria: Army Vienna -> Tyrolia.  (*bounce*)

It would have been smarter for Austria to use Budapest to bounce in Galicia.
It was unlikely that Italy would attack directly this turn. Austria did have
every reason to believe that the move on Tyrolia would work. Nobody expected
Germany to help out Italy. Even so, the bounce is all he needed to defend
himself against Italy. Turkey, on the other hand, can take Serbia because he
wasn't bounced from Galicia.

England: Fleet North Sea CONVOY Army Edinburgh -> Belgium.
England: Fleet English Channel SUPPORT Army Edinburgh -> Belgium.  (*cut*)
England: Army Edinburgh -> North Sea -> Belgium.  (*bounce*)
England: Fleet Mid-Atlantic Ocean -> Western Mediterranean.

If England had moved to Portugal and followed up with a fleet in the Atlantic
there would have been no way for me to take it back and he would have balanced
the loss of Warsaw. Instead he attacks an area that is was easy for me to
defend and moves his fleet into a useless position in the Mediterranean. After
last turn's fireworks this poor play is a letdown.

France: Army Burgundy SUPPORT Fleet Belgium.
France: Fleet Tunis HOLD.
France: Army Spain SUPPORT Army Paris -> Gascony.
France: Army Picardy -> Brest.  (*bounce*)
France: Fleet Belgium SUPPORT Fleet Brest -> English Channel.  (*cut*)
France: Army Paris -> Gascony.
France: Fleet Brest -> English Channel.  (*bounce*)

Not much movement here and several bounces and cuts but I got everything I had
hoped for, which was to keep England out of my centers. I figured England would
either go for Portugal and hold it or go for Spain now and hit Portugal from
there. He could have attacked directly with his fleets or a long convoy from
Edinburgh. Landing an army down there would have been a real problem for me so
I attempted to break up the convoy in the channel. If he attacked with his
fleets he had a 50/50 chance of picking the right center to attack. Brest was
my weak point with these orders but if it were taken I could have easily taken
it back in the fall.

Germany: Army Holland SUPPORT Fleet Berlin -> Kiel.
Germany: Army Munich SUPPORT Italian Army Venice -> Tyrolia.
Germany: Army Silesia SUPPORT Russian Army Moscow -> Warsaw.
Germany: Fleet Berlin -> Kiel.

And this year we have the helpful Germany. Here he helps out two of his
neighbors and moves the fleet to Kiel like I asked him to. I am beyond any
attempt to guess what Germany will do each turn. I'm not even sure what he's
trying to accomplish anymore so it's hard to evaluate his moves.

Italy: Army Venice -> Tyrolia.  (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Adriatic Sea SUPPORT Army Rome -> Venice.
Italy: Fleet Greece SUPPORT Turkish Fleet Aegean Sea.
Italy: Army Rome -> Venice.  (*bounce*)

Getting the German help was good. It's too bad for him Austria moved on Tyrolia
with such force. If it had worked he would be able to take Trieste for sure.
As it is, he's not likely to take anything this year. Sill, I cant' see a
better set of orders for him.

Russia: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT French Fleet Belgium -> North Sea.  (*void*)
Russia: Army Livonia SUPPORT Army St Petersburg -> Moscow.
Russia: Army Norway HOLD.
Russia: Army Moscow -> Warsaw.
Russia: Army St Petersburg -> Moscow.

This is a clever approach. I probably would have taken Warsaw from Livonia
with Moscow's help and used the fall to safely vacate St. Pete. But with
German help he is able to position his armies to move forward right away.
Now he can hit positionally important Ukraine now while Turkey is still
concentrating on Austria.

Turkey: Army Ukraine -> Galicia.
Turkey: Army Sevastopol SUPPORT Army Bulgaria -> Rumania.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea SUPPORT Army Bulgaria -> Rumania.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea SUPPORT Army Constantinople -> Bulgaria.
Turkey: Army Constantinople -> Bulgaria.
Turkey: Army Bulgaria -> Rumania.

Getting armies into Galicia, Rumania, and Bulgaria was clearly Turkey's goal
for this turn, and he does it well. He even manages to do it while keeping an
army in Sevastopol, which will help him against Russia.

Evaluation:

Austria is in trouble and I am not. Turkey will probably take Serbia this year
and England failed to find the right moves to take something from me. Turkey
will gain, but he's facing trouble from Russia. Italy could be in some trouble
if Turkey grows too fast. And if I'm lucky I might be able to start moving on
England. This has been a remarkably well balanced game. It's 1906 and with the
exception of Sevastopol everybody has their home centers plus nearby neutrals.
I'm not sure if that means we're all good, or we're all bad, but I don't feel
like I've been playing all that well.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Fall of 1906.  (crosstab.023)

Austria: Army Serbia SUPPORT Army Trieste.  (*cut, dislodged*)
Austria: Army Budapest -> Rumania.  (*bounce*)
Austria: Army Trieste SUPPORT Army Serbia.  (*cut*)
Austria: Army Vienna -> Galicia.  (*bounce*)

There was no way to cover everything here, Austria does what he can but
loses Serbia. He retreats to Albania, which was his only choice.

England: Fleet North Sea CONVOY Army Edinburgh -> Belgium.
England: Fleet English Channel SUPPORT Army Edinburgh -> Belgium.  (*dislodged*)
England: Army Edinburgh -> North Sea -> Belgium.  (*bounce*)
England: Fleet Western Mediterranean -> Tyrrhenian Sea.

The more aggressive move would have been to get into the Mid-Atlantic. He
should have anticipated that I'd cover Belgium. I had plenty of force with
which to do it and did the same attack last turn so I knew he wanted 
Belgium. The move to Tyrrhenian means he hopes to catch Italy off guard and
grab a center. He could have retreated to Picardy or Mid-Atlantic to cause
me more trouble, but he take the defensive road and retreats to London.

France: Army Burgundy SUPPORT Army Picardy -> Belgium.
France: Fleet Tunis HOLD.
France: Army Spain HOLD.
France: Army Picardy -> Belgium.
France: Fleet Belgium -> English Channel.
France: Army Gascony HOLD.
France: Fleet Brest SUPPORT Fleet Belgium -> English Channel.

This is a good outcome. I'm finally calling the shots with England now. But
three of my units hold and I bet at least a couple will continue to do so.
I need to start moving at a faster tempo but I'm still worried about covering
what I own.

Germany: Army Holland -> North Sea -> English Channel -> London.  (*no convoy*)
Germany: Army Munich SUPPORT Italian Army Venice -> Tyrolia.
Germany: Army Silesia -> Bohemia.
Germany: Fleet Kiel -> Helgoland Bight.

Germany's still thrashing around. He finds things to do with three of his
units (I'm still pushing him toward the North Sea) but doesn't have anything
to do with Holland so he orders something ridiculous. He told me that he
just wants to run around and cause trouble, which makes him dangerous.

Italy: Army Venice -> Tyrolia.
Italy: Fleet Adriatic Sea -> Trieste.  (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Greece SUPPORT Turkish Fleet Aegean Sea -> Bulgaria (south coast). 
(*void*)
Italy: Army Rome -> Venice.

This time the move to Tyrolia works. It is a good positional gain if he can
get Vienna. With Vienna and Trieste he will be able to put up a fight against
Turkey. I'm not sure if the voided support means that his alliance with
Turkey has broken down, or that there was a communications mix-up, or that
Turkey just changed his mind at the last minute. It doesn't make a big
difference to the results, but could have meaning diplomatically.

Russia: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT German Fleet Kiel -> Helgoland Bight.
Russia: Army Livonia SUPPORT Army Warsaw.
Russia: Army Norway HOLD.
Russia: Army Warsaw SUPPORT German Army Silesia.  (*void*)
Russia: Army Moscow -> Sevastopol.  (*bounce*)

I thought Russia would use this turn to begin pressing the attack against
Turkey. He could have pushed his way into Ukraine where he would be able to
mount a serious assault on Sevastopol. After growing so methodically this
turn looks wasted.

Turkey: Army Galicia -> Budapest.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Sevastopol -> Rumania.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea -> Rumania.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea SUPPORT Army Bulgaria.
Turkey: Army Bulgaria SUPPORT Army Rumania -> Serbia.
Turkey: Army Rumania -> Serbia.

This is a good attack on Serbia, and a real effort to keep Rumania open. But
why try so hard to keep Rumania open? That's the only part I don't
understand. The rest of this looks good.

Evaluation:

Turkey is looking stronger and stronger. He could easily pass me in the
coming year. Austria can't do anything to stop him, especially because
Italy wants as much of him as he can get before he faces off against Turkey.
At least I hope he faces off against Turkey. If he decides that's a battle
he doesn't want to fight he could turn against me again. At least Turkey
will also have to face Russia, who's showing he can fight back if cornered.
Germany is still nothing but a question mark to me. He's not trying to win
and his motives are so unclear that it's hard to know what to tell him to
get him to help me. If England chooses to disband the Tyrrhenian fleet he
can put up a tough fight, but I bet he'll remove the army instead or why
would he have moved all the way to the Tyrrhenian? I have to push hard
against England and start making some gains if I want a shot at this game.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1906.  (crosstab.025)

Austria:   Removes the army in Vienna.
England:   Removes the fleet in the Tyrrhenian Sea.
Russia:    Builds a fleet in St Petersburg (north coast).
Turkey:    Builds an army in Constantinople.

None of Austria's removes looked very good. He chose to ignore the threat
of Germany and keep his southern position. England removes the Tyrrhenian
after all, so I'm going to have a tough fight ahead of me. Turkey's army in
Constantinople is obvious. A Russian fleet in the far north must mean that
he wants a piece of England. I had figured he'd build another army and keep
pushing south. Now I have another competitor for England's centers.
Hopefully we can work together.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Spring of 1907.  (crosstab.026)

Austria: Army Albania -> Serbia.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
Austria: Army Budapest -> Galicia.  (*bounce*)
Austria: Army Trieste -> Vienna.

Even if he had concentrated totally on Italy he would have lost his hold on
Albania and Trieste, so this set of orders is about as good as he could do.
The army in Albania is destroyed, which leaves him a unit short in an already
bad situation. Austria's only way out of this is with considerable outside
help, of which he has none.

England: Fleet North Sea SUPPORT Fleet London.  (*cut*)
England: Fleet London SUPPORT Fleet North Sea.
England: Army Edinburgh -> Liverpool.

Good choices here. He knows the value of the North Sea and works to hold it.
He also anticipates my presence in the Irish Sea and covers Liverpool now,
rather than later. He's clearly preparing to put up a tough defense of the
island.

France: Army Burgundy -> Picardy.
France: Fleet Tunis HOLD.
France: Army Spain -> Gascony.
France: Army Belgium HOLD.
France: Fleet English Channel -> Irish Sea.
France: Army Gascony -> Brest.
France: Fleet Brest -> English Channel.

It's nice when everything works, even if I wasn't ordering anything
spectacular. I was a little worried he'd force his way into the Channel and
I'd have to worry about the Mid-Atlantic again. I can't take anything from
England this fall, but at least I've finally straightened things out
positionally.

Germany: Army Holland -> Belgium.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Army Munich -> Kiel.
Germany: Army Bohemia SUPPORT Russian Army Warsaw -> Galicia.  (*void*)
Germany: Fleet Helgoland Bight -> North Sea.  (*bounce*)

Holland to Belgium is a little unsettling, but certainly not damaging. He
probably knew that but I'm guessing he figured what the hell, if France
happens to vacate it this would stir things up a bit. I'm not sure if Russia
and Germany are jerking each other around, or if Warsaw-Galicia is just
wishful thinking on Germany's part.

Italy: Army Tyrolia SUPPORT Army Venice -> Trieste.
Italy: Fleet Adriatic Sea -> Albania.
Italy: Fleet Greece SUPPORT Fleet Adriatic Sea -> Albania.
Italy: Army Venice -> Trieste.

Two well executed attacks by Italy. Given the Turkish Galicia-Budapest there
was no way for Austria to stop either of these.

Russia: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT German Fleet Helgoland Bight -> North Sea.
Russia: Army Livonia -> Moscow.
Russia: Army Norway -> Sweden.
Russia: Army Warsaw SUPPORT Army Moscow -> Ukraine.
Russia: Army Moscow -> Ukraine.
Russia: Fleet St Petersburg (north coast) -> Norway.

Russia wrote to me late saying he wanted a peaceful border with Turkey, but
then he ordered an army into Ukraine. Still, I think moving on Ukraine was
the right choice. Getting across the stalemate line was important if he
wanted a real fight with Turkey. He moves the new fleet to Norway, which
means he's thinking about the North Sea.

Turkey: Army Galicia -> Budapest.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Sevastopol SUPPORT Army Constantinople -> Rumania.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea CONVOY Army Constantinople -> Rumania.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea HOLD.
Turkey: Army Bulgaria SUPPORT Army Serbia.
Turkey: Army Serbia SUPPORT Army Galicia -> Budapest.  (*cut*)
Turkey: Army Constantinople -> Black Sea -> Rumania.

The attack on Budapest was at best a fifty-fifty shot, but worth taking
anyway. The Austrian threat to Serbia forces him into some contortions in
order to get an army into Rumania, but he has enough units to spare behind
the line to get it done. And it's a good choice. He now has the position he
wants for a serious push west.

Evaluation:

Italy looked particularly strong this turn. He'll probably add Vienna in the
fall and get two builds. That can't be good news for me. If I had a build
coming I'd make it a fleet in Marseilles, but I've been moving at such a
snail's pace that I don't have that option. My position is tenuous at best.
I could make some progress in England but not for another year. I'd prefer to
keep Russia out of England, but I'm not sure I can beat him to it. I might
need to look at Germany, and who knows how he will react to that. A fight
between Russia and Germany would be good for me, and might happen. Russia
needs builds to fight Turkey, and German positions would help him too.
Turkey can still defend himself from Russia but it will tie up some of his
armies when he'd really rather be using them elsewhere. Even so, he can
make a strong push against Italy soon, if he wants to. I don't know where
else he plans to go from here. Russia will be tough to crack, and Austria
and Italy are very supply center rich.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Fall of 1907.  (crosstab.027)

Austria: Army Budapest -> Trieste.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
Austria: Army Vienna SUPPORT Army Budapest -> Trieste.  (*cut*)

This was as good as anything he could do considering extent of the combined
Italo-Turkish attacks coming at him. German support keeps him alive.

England: Fleet North Sea -> English Channel.
England: Fleet London SUPPORT Fleet North Sea -> English Channel.
England: Army Liverpool HOLD.

Of course England picks the worst thing for me. I had to choose whether to
support the move to Wales or support the convoying fleet, and I got it wrong.

France: Army Picardy -> Belgium.
France: Fleet Tunis HOLD.
France: Army Gascony -> Burgundy.
France: Army Belgium -> Ruhr.
France: Fleet Irish Sea SUPPORT Army Brest -> Wales.
France: Army Brest -> English Channel -> Wales.  (*no convoy*)
France: Fleet English Channel CONVOY Army Brest -> Wales.  (*dislodged*)

I moved into a good position on Germany but lost the convoy. That will make
invading England a lot harder. I retreated to Wales so I can still put pressure
on Liverpool, but now England can get out to the Med and threaten Iberia. I was
really hopeful for this turn but in the end it really comes off flat.

Germany: Army Holland -> Helgoland Bight -> Denmark.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Army Kiel SUPPORT Army Holland -> Denmark.
Germany: Army Bohemia SUPPORT Austrian Army Vienna.
Germany: Fleet Helgoland Bight CONVOY Army Holland -> Denmark.

I encouraged Germany to attack Russia and Russia to be wary of Germany. I hope
to keep these guys fighting while I work on England. I also negotiated the
support of Vienna. Keeping Austria in it slows Turkey down and keeps Italy from
building two this year.

Italy: Army Tyrolia -> Vienna.  (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Albania -> Ionian Sea.
Italy: Fleet Greece SUPPORT Turkish Fleet Aegean Sea.
Italy: Army Trieste SUPPORT Army Tyrolia -> Vienna.  (*cut*)

This was a good plan and would have given him a second build if it weren't for
my meddling.

Russia: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT German Fleet Helgoland Bight -> North Sea. 
(*void*)
Russia: Army Moscow SUPPORT Army Ukraine.
Russia: Army Sweden SUPPORT Fleet Denmark.
Russia: Army Warsaw -> Galicia.
Russia: Army Ukraine SUPPORT Army Warsaw -> Galicia.
Russia: Fleet Norway -> North Sea.

Russia follows my suggestions for Norway, Sweden, and Denmark and repels the
German attack while getting a little lucky and taking the North Sea. In the
east Galicia is an important positional gain, but why not hit Sevastopol? It's
not likely to work (and wouldn't have) but it's certainly worth a try just in
case. I think Russia's trying to settle a temporary peace with Turkey in order
to build in the north.

Turkey: Army Galicia -> Budapest.
Turkey: Army Sevastopol SUPPORT Army Rumania.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea SUPPORT Army Sevastopol.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea HOLD.
Turkey: Army Bulgaria SUPPORT Army Serbia.
Turkey: Army Serbia SUPPORT Army Galicia -> Budapest.
Turkey: Army Rumania SUPPORT Army Galicia -> Budapest.

I had hoped that Turkey would get greedy this turn and take Greece. He could
have gotten both it and Budapest and built two this year, but he remains
faithful. Losing Galicia could hurt him in the long run. Rumania, though a
risk, might have been a better choice for the attack. Since he's only moving
one unit and only needs one support most of his units are waiting this turn.
Supports of Rumania and Serbia were unnecessary.

Evaluation:

It's only a matter of time before Turkey attacks Italy. With just a single gain
from England or Germany Russia can defend himself. So why didn't Turkey attack
Italy while it's still weak? I'm optimistic about Germany carrying through with
his offer to give me his centers, but will it be enough and in time? Breaking
England will be slow work, and if Turkey is really not going to hit Italy then
I have to worry about a new front opening up. It could even happen this year.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1907.  (crosstab.029)

Italy:     Builds a fleet in Naples.
Turkey:    Builds an army in Smyrna.

Austria didn't even get to retreat his armies, there was one destroyed each
turn. Turkey and Italy take the spoils, although this helps Turkey more than
Italy. Italy was really hoping to get Vienna and two builds. It would have
enabled him to fight a real war with Turkey. It will be tougher as it is now.
The scary thing is that his fleet could easily be used to take Tunis back
away from me (which would ultimately end up in Turkey's hands if he does it).
Turkey's build is an odd one. A build in Constantinople would have been more
useful to his front. And if he want to attack Italy a fleet in Smyrna would
be the thing. An army must be purely defensive and not meant to move, or he
just made a mistake.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Spring of 1908.  (crosstab.030)

Austria: Army Vienna SUPPORT Turkish Army Serbia -> Trieste.  (*cut*)

I'm not sure if this was a trick by Turkey, or just hopefulness from Austria,
but it was as good as anything he could do.

England: Fleet English Channel -> Irish Sea.
England: Fleet London -> Wales.
England: Army Liverpool SUPPORT Fleet London -> Wales.

This is a smart set of orders for denying me Liverpool. However I gave up on
Liverpool and talked Russia into taking London.

France: Army Belgium -> Holland.  (*bounce*)
France: Fleet Tunis HOLD.
France: Army Burgundy -> Munich.
France: Army Ruhr SUPPORT Army Burgundy -> Munich.
France: Fleet Irish Sea -> Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
France: Army Brest HOLD.
France: Fleet Wales -> Liverpool.  (*bounce, dislodged*)

Most of this worked well. I didn't have any definite goal in mind here. I was
looking at far too many English options here to plan anything specific so I
just hoped to maximize my positional situation at the end of the turn. I
retreat to the Channel which is at least a secure position, if not one I can
advance well from. If Russia and I can keep London, England will remove one
anyway, which is good enough for me. Germany gave me the go ahead to start
taking his centers and this should give me a build.

Germany: Army Holland -> Kiel.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Army Kiel -> Denmark.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Army Bohemia SUPPORT Austrian Army Vienna.
Germany: Fleet Helgoland Bight -> North Sea.

Russia had written to me that he was worried about losing the North Sea and I
told him I didn't think it was likely, which I didn't. But since England
vacated London and Germany happened to move to the North Sea instead of
supporting another attack on Denmark he lost it anyway. From there Germany has
a lot of options. This should give Russia a fit.

Italy: Army Tyrolia -> Vienna.  (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Aegean Sea.  (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Greece SUPPORT Fleet Ionian Sea -> Aegean Sea.  (*cut*)
Italy: Army Trieste SUPPORT Army Tyrolia -> Vienna.  (*cut*)
Italy: Fleet Naples -> Ionian Sea.  (*bounce*)

This is a straightforward push to the east. Unfortunately literally nothing
worked. His support for Vienna was cut but with Germany in the act again, it
wouldn't have mattered. I'd feel a lot better if the fleet moves had succeeded,
but Turkey saw them coming.

Russia: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT German Fleet Helgoland Bight -> Kiel.  (*void*)
Russia: Army Moscow SUPPORT Army Ukraine.  (*cut*)
Russia: Army Sweden SUPPORT Fleet Denmark.
Russia: Army Galicia SUPPORT Austrian Army Vienna -> Budapest.  (*void*)
Russia: Army Ukraine SUPPORT Army Galicia.  (*cut*)
Russia: Fleet North Sea -> London.

I'm not sure what's up with the support from Denmark unless it's just because
he didn't want to hold. North Sea to London was my idea. I didn't figure it
would succeed, I just wanted any potential London supports cut. As it is the
fleet is cut off from his other units. This will be a guessing game for him
because Germany has more options in the North Sea than he can cover all at
once. If Russia had moved on Sevastopol this turn it would have worked. Turkey
ordered no support for it. But Russia is just waiting. He tells me he wants to
build up with captures in England and Germany before his attacks Turkey, but
he may be running out of time. Turkey's build last year is being moved in his
direction.

Turkey: Army Budapest -> Galicia.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Sevastopol -> Moscow.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea HOLD.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea SUPPORT Army Bulgaria -> Greece.  (*cut*)
Turkey: Army Bulgaria -> Greece.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Serbia -> Trieste.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Rumania -> Ukraine.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Smyrna -> Armenia.

This is kind of a strange set of moves. He seems to be carefully cutting
everyone else's chance of attacking him but making no effort to gain anything
himself or position himself for the fall. He might as well have taken Greece
and Galicia, but he seems intent to maintain the status quo here. It is possible
that this is fake fighting but I don't see what it accomplishes.

Evaluation:

Only 14 of 34 orders succeeded this turn. Everything else was bounced, or cut,
or void. Of the successful orders, only half were move orders. Over a third of
the successful orders were mine, though. As long as Germany keeps playing ball
I've got a build coming this turn. Depending on how things between me, Germany
and Russia work out England could lose a center this turn, and Russia could
lose Denmark to Germany. Turkey has a good shot at taking Greece, so if Italy
doesn't get Vienna I have to start thinking about building up my Mediterranean
defense.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Fall of 1908.  (crosstab.032)

Austria: Army Vienna SUPPORT Turkish Army Serbia -> Trieste.  (*cut*)

Austria sent out some last second messages saying what he wants is revenge on
Italy and survival, in that order. But the messages were way to late for anyone
to respond. Maybe he's made a survival deal with Turkey. I'm frankly surprised
he lived out this year without more German help.

England: Fleet Irish Sea -> English Channel.
England: Fleet Wales SUPPORT German Fleet North Sea -> London.  (*void*)
England: Army Liverpool -> Yorkshire.

I'm not sure why he moved to Yorkshire and risked Edinburgh. Now I wish I'd
asked Germany to go there, but hindsight is always 20/20. He seems to be
moving positionally to retake London, but he's losing a unit this year so it
doesn't seem like a very fruitful effort. I would have covered Edinburgh and
maybe supported an attack on the English Channel.

France: Army Belgium SUPPORT Army Ruhr -> Holland.
France: Fleet Tunis HOLD.
France: Army Munich -> Kiel.  (*bounce*)
France: Army Ruhr -> Holland.
France: Fleet Mid-Atlantic Ocean -> Irish Sea.
France: Army Brest -> Picardy.
France: Fleet English Channel -> North Sea.

The moves to Kiel and North Sea were Russia's idea. He proposed a very good set
of moves to defend himself from Germany. I couldn't find a hole in them so I
agreed to them to save face. Then I worked with Germany to try to get him into
a position to cause Russia some grief in the coming year. Germany is still
asking me to take supply centers away from him so I'm obliging. I don't have a
very good position on England unless he chooses to keep the Channel fleet, so
maybe it's time to strike at Russia. I'll have to do it sooner or later, but I'd
like to have more units before I do.

Germany: Army Holland SUPPORT Army Kiel.  (*void, dislodged*)
Germany: Army Kiel -> Denmark.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Army Bohemia -> Silesia.  (*bounce*)
Germany: Fleet North Sea -> Skagerrak.

I had recommended Holland to Ruhr with Kiel supporting in order to look like
we were fighting but still allow me to take Holland. I think the cover would
have been good to work with diplomatically. Skagerrak and Silesia were my ideas.
I had hoped to have him threaten Warsaw, but he got bounced. Skagerrak gives us
a lot of options for the coming year.

Italy: Army Tyrolia -> Vienna.  (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea SUPPORT Fleet Greece.
Italy: Fleet Greece SUPPORT Fleet Ionian Sea.  (*cut*)
Italy: Army Trieste -> Serbia.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
Italy: Fleet Naples SUPPORT Fleet Ionian Sea.

I think it would have been better to either attempt to support the attack on
Vienna or use Tyrolia to support Trieste in place. Tyrolia to Vienna isn't
going to work on its own and his support might have helped Trieste. Of course
it wouldn't have worked in the end so maybe I'm just wrong, but without knowing
that Austria would help it looks good. With the benefit of hindsight Trieste to
Vienna with Tyrolian support would have been best. I would have been tempted
to shoot out to the Eastern Med, but carefully covering Greece and the Ionian
is much better. He retreats his army back to Venice.

Russia: Fleet Denmark HOLD.
Russia: Army Moscow SUPPORT Army Ukraine.
Russia: Army Sweden -> Norway.
Russia: Army Galicia -> Silesia.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Army Ukraine HOLD.
Russia: Fleet London HOLD.

The longer he waits the stronger Turkey gets and the more likely he is to get
outflanked. He should have taken back Sevastopol before Turkey got that army
into Armenia. The move to Silesia is anti-German. It keeps him away from Warsaw
and if he'd gotten in he'd have leverage on Berlin.

Turkey: Army Budapest SUPPORT Army Serbia -> Trieste.
Turkey: Army Sevastopol SUPPORT Army Rumania.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea SUPPORT Army Rumania.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea SUPPORT Army Bulgaria -> Greece.
Turkey: Army Bulgaria -> Greece.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Serbia -> Trieste.
Turkey: Army Rumania SUPPORT Army Budapest.
Turkey: Army Armenia SUPPORT Army Sevastopol.

This was a good plan. With Austria's help Trieste is guaranteed. The attack on
Greece keeps Italy from sliding past him into the Eastern Med.

Evaluation:

I'm thinking I shouldn't have denied Vienna to Italy last year. If he had
another unit he'd be able to defend himself against Turkey better. As it is
he will need my help and will have to trust me a lot, which I'm not sure he's
ready to do. Turkey is looking strong but if I can stop him with Italy's help
I have a chance. I don't have a good roadmap for proceeding in the north.
Right now I'm just taking things as the come but if it turns into a race with
Turkey I'll need a better plan than that. Russia's looking good right now but
he will some day be looking at a two-front war with me and Turkey and I don't
think he can handle that.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1908.  (crosstab.034)

England:   Removes the fleet in the English Channel.
Germany:   Removes the army in Bohemia.
Italy:     Removes the fleet in Naples.
France:    Builds a fleet in Brest.
France:    Builds a fleet in Marseilles.
Russia:    Builds a fleet in St Petersburg (north coast).
Turkey:    Builds a fleet in Smyrna.

If England had kept the Channel fleet I would have taken something from him
in the north so he made the right choice. Germany's going to push the fight
against Russia into Scandinavia. Italy keeps keeps his well deployed older
units. He requested the Marseilles fleet from me to help build a stalemate
line against Turkey. My other fleet has long been needed against England.
Russia is paying too little heed to Turkey for it to be a coincidence that he
hasn't been attacked yet. They must have a non-aggression agreement. Turkey
knows where the fight is going to be and builds another fleet.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Spring of 1909.  (crosstab.035)

Austria: Army Vienna -> Budapest.  (*bounce*)

Austria sent a message to everybody but Italy a turn ago saying that all he
wanted was revenge against Italy and survival, in that order. But Italy still
talked him into helping out against Turkey this turn. Italy is a very good
diplomat. This support cutting move returns Trieste to Italy and is the big
news on the board this turn.

England: Fleet Wales -> Liverpool.  (*bounce*)
England: Army Yorkshire -> Edinburgh.

A logical pull back to the supply centers. This was his best defensive move.

France: Army Belgium -> Holland.
France: Fleet Tunis -> Ionian Sea.  (*bounce*)
France: Army Munich SUPPORT Army Holland -> Kiel.
France: Army Holland -> Kiel.
France: Fleet Irish Sea -> Liverpool.  (*bounce*)
France: Army Picardy -> Belgium.
France: Fleet North Sea SUPPORT Russian Fleet London.
France: Fleet Brest -> English Channel.
France: Fleet Marseilles -> Gulf of Lyon.

In the Med Italy asked me to move to Ionian in case his move to East Med worked.
He didn't expect it to but really didn't want to let Turkey in there. The other
fleet is heading to Tyrrhenian, it's place in the stalemate line. I move into
the vacated Kiel and the north coast shifts along with it. That's a build
for me, which is maybe more than Turkey will get. I supported London in case
England went for it and got other units in place for later action.

Germany: Army Kiel -> Denmark.
Germany: Fleet Skagerrak SUPPORT Army Kiel -> Denmark.

Anything to keep the Russian occupied. It will cost Russia a lot of effort to
try to take Denmark back in the fall. Which I actually hope to stop him from
doing. I actually suggested Russia's moves to him and when he agreed to them I
passed it along to Germany and told him how to take advantage of it.

Italy: Army Tyrolia -> Trieste.
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Eastern Mediterranean.  (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Greece -> Aegean Sea.  (*bounce, dislodged*)
Italy: Army Venice SUPPORT Army Tyrolia -> Trieste.

An excellent turn here. With Austrian help he gets Trieste and unless Austria
switches sides in the fall he will hold it. That maintains his supply center
count and saves him a removal. It also might deny Turkey a build this year.
Greece was basically unholdable so bouncing in the Eastern Med was smart.
He retreats to Albania, his only choice.

Russia: Fleet Denmark SUPPORT French Army Holland -> Kiel.  (*dislodged*)
Russia: Army Moscow SUPPORT Army Ukraine.
Russia: Army Norway -> Sweden.
Russia: Army Galicia -> Silesia.
Russia: Army Ukraine HOLD.
Russia: Fleet London SUPPORT French Fleet North Sea.
Russia: Fleet St Petersburg (north coast) -> Norway.

With the German fleet in Skagerrak it's a juggling act to keep all his
supply centers covered and it costs him Denmark. He can retake it in the fall
with my help but I think the time has come stab. He goes so far as to back off
his line with Turkey, which I don't like. I'm beginning to doubt if any of his
future builds will go to the south. So it's time to cut him down before he
becomes dangerous to me. His dislodged fleet retreats to the Baltic, from which
he will attempt to retake Denmark if he trusts me, or hit Berlin if he doesn't.

Turkey: Army Budapest SUPPORT Army Trieste.  (*cut*)
Turkey: Army Sevastopol SUPPORT Army Rumania.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea -> Constantinople.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea SUPPORT Army Bulgaria -> Greece.
Turkey: Army Bulgaria -> Greece.
Turkey: Army Trieste SUPPORT Austrian Army Vienna.  (*void, dislodged*)
Turkey: Army Rumania SUPPORT Army Budapest.
Turkey: Army Armenia SUPPORT Army Sevastopol.
Turkey: Fleet Smyrna -> Eastern Mediterranean.  (*bounce*)

A fairly passive turn, with 6 of 9 moves being supports. Still, I don't see a
much better way to proceed, unless he were to position himself for a push north.
He clearly wants to go west first and concentrating on holding what he has while
taking Greece is a good approach. He couldn't possibly have expected the move
from Austria that cost him Trieste. But it's a move that hurts him. He can't
retake it and probably won't build this year. Taking out Austria will be
difficult without entering Galicia and scaring Russia and he needs either
Vienna or Albania to get Trieste back. He's also looking at the very real
threat of a supported attack on Budapest in the fall. He retreats to Serbia. He
could have tried to retreat to Albania, but since that was Italy's only choice
he knew it wouldn't have worked.

Evaluation:

Well this turn goes to Italy. He appeared to be in a race to a stalemate line
that depended heavily on me, but now he's in a decent position. If he can
sustain this new momentum he can keep Turkey off balance for at least another
year. A year in which Turkey needs to grow to keep pace with me. I'm optimistic
about this fall turn. I'm going to stab Russia hard. I'm going to feed Germany
the information he needs to keep Denmark, then I'm going to try for Berlin and
London. If it all works Russia will remove two and my prospects for clearing
the north will be greatly improved. I always figured Russia and I would come
to blows sooner or later, I'm just glad I've been able to dictate when.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Fall of 1909.  (crosstab.037)

Austria: Army Vienna -> Budapest.  (*bounce*)

Might as well try for this. If Turkey wasn't thinking clearly it would have
worked. As it is, it's still a warning to Turkey that he'd better play
carefully.

England: Fleet Wales -> Liverpool.
England: Army Edinburgh SUPPORT Fleet Wales -> Liverpool.

This is pretty much his only defense.

France: Army Holland -> Kiel.
France: Fleet Tunis -> Ionian Sea.  (*bounce*)
France: Army Munich SUPPORT Army Kiel -> Berlin.
France: Army Kiel -> Berlin.
France: Fleet Irish Sea SUPPORT Fleet English Channel.
France: Army Belgium -> English Channel -> London.
France: Fleet North Sea SUPPORT Army Belgium -> London.
France: Fleet English Channel CONVOY Army Belgium -> London.
France: Fleet Gulf of Lyon HOLD.

And here I stab Russia. I stab him hard and I stab him deep. I feel kind of bad
about it, really, but it gives me a real shot at a solo and I can't pass that
up. I stay nice in the Mediterranean, hoping that Italy won't turn on me now
that I'm the leader.

Germany: Army Denmark SUPPORT Fleet Skagerrak -> Sweden.  (*cut*)
Germany: Fleet Skagerrak -> Sweden.  (*bounce*)

After working out the best plan for Russia, I abandoned my end and told Germany
how to keep Denmark. There was an off chance he could get Sweden, so we included
the support.

Italy: Army Trieste SUPPORT Austrian Army Vienna -> Budapest.
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Eastern Mediterranean.  (*bounce*)
Italy: Fleet Albania -> Greece.  (*bounce*)
Italy: Army Venice SUPPORT Army Trieste.

Trying for Budapest and Eastern Med is the best approach for trying to stop
Turkey. I just hope he doesn't turn everyone around and try to stop me now.

Russia: Fleet Baltic Sea -> Denmark.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Army Moscow SUPPORT Army Ukraine.
Russia: Army Sweden SUPPORT Fleet Baltic Sea -> Denmark.  (*cut*)
Russia: Army Silesia -> Berlin.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Army Ukraine HOLD.
Russia: Fleet London SUPPORT French Army Belgium -> Wales.  (*void, dislodged*)
Russia: Fleet Norway SUPPORT Army Sweden.

If I hadn't stabbed him, this would have been a good turn. He would have held
his line against Turkey, retaken Denmark, and gotten a build from Berlin. He
didn't really deserve this stab. He had such a rough start and then fought back
well to become a very important power. But the opportunity was there, so I took
it. His fleet retreats from London to Yorkshire, but I'm hoping he'll remove it.

Turkey: Army Budapest SUPPORT Army Serbia.  (*cut*)
Turkey: Army Sevastopol HOLD.
Turkey: Fleet Constantinople -> Black Sea.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea SUPPORT Army Greece.
Turkey: Army Greece HOLD.
Turkey: Army Serbia SUPPORT Army Budapest.
Turkey: Army Rumania -> Galicia.
Turkey: Army Armenia SUPPORT Army Sevastopol.
Turkey: Fleet Smyrna -> Eastern Mediterranean.  (*bounce*)

Turkey chose the same moment I did to move against Russia. This could be bad if
Turkey manages to get a bigger piece of Russia than I do, but it could be good
if it scares Russia enough that he doesn't just turn his back to Turkey and
fight me. The only anti-Italian thing he does here is try for the East Med
again. Is he beginning to give up on Italy? Or is Galicia meant to help take
Vienna?

Evaluation:

I have been maneuvering to work things to my advantage and Russia's disadvantage
since fall 1907, when I orchestrated the first German attack on Denmark, But the
specific plan for this stab formed during the spring turn. I wanted to keep
things as they were in England so I could take London, and position Germany to
take and keep Denmark. Germany was still willing to help out, and I don't think
Russia suspected him of helping me so I tried to keep things looking like
Germany just hated Russia and I was helping Russia kill him. I convinced Russia
to take a spring approach that would leave Denmark vulnerable and told Germany
how to use that. Part of the plan was that if Russia lost Denmark he could
easily take it back in the fall with my help. Additionally I promised him
Berlin. So he was expecting to get a build this year, but instead he removes
two. This is pretty harsh, but it was a fairly elaborate plan and it all just
came together so nicely that I couldn't resist using it.

So Russia takes a big hit and I build three. I suddenly find myself with
logistical problems getting new units to where they are needed. It's now
officially only a matter of time for England. Austria, however, could survive
if Turkey is shifting his attention to Russia. Italy's the real threat to me.
His diplomatic skills are good enough that he could forge a big alliance to
stop me.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1909.  (crosstab.039)

Germany:   Removes the army in Denmark.
Russia:    Removes the fleet in the Baltic Sea.
Russia:    Removes the fleet in Yorkshire.
France:    Builds a fleet in Brest.
France:    Builds an army in Paris.
France:    Builds an army in Marseilles.

The armies will help me build a stalemate line in the south and if I have to
the fleet will probably head down to complete it. Russia had three units in
irritating positions and thankfully he removed two of them, leaving Silesia.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Spring of 1910.  (crosstab.040)

Austria: Army Vienna SUPPORT Turkish Army Galicia -> Bohemia.

When an extremely vulnerable Austria is helping his potential attacker Turkey
to move in my direction it can't be a good sign.

England: Fleet Liverpool -> Irish Sea.  (*bounce*)
England: Army Edinburgh -> Yorkshire.  (*bounce*)

This was definitely England's best approach. He'll still lose Liverpool, but
he can continue along these lines to slow me down against Edinburgh.

France: Army Kiel -> Denmark.
France: Fleet Tunis HOLD.
France: Army Munich HOLD.
France: Army Berlin HOLD.
France: Fleet Irish Sea SUPPORT Fleet English Channel -> Wales.  (*cut*)
France: Army London -> Yorkshire.  (*bounce*)
France: Fleet North Sea SUPPORT Army Kiel -> Denmark.
France: Fleet English Channel -> Wales.
France: Fleet Gulf of Lyon -> Western Mediterranean.
France: Fleet Brest -> English Channel.
France: Army Paris -> Burgundy.
France: Army Marseilles HOLD.

Italy wrote me and called these moves "unusually poor." I don't really think
so. They're not spectacular but they get the job done. I was hoping that Turkey
wouldn't play ball, but it looks like he will. If that's the case I can't solo.
I'm not even sure I can get to the stalemate line. I will need both Norway and
Sweden to stalemate. My only hope is what worried Italy. He wrote that if I
continued to play badly that the eastern alliance wouldn't hold up. I hope he's
right. I need Turkey to renew his efforts at a solo.

Germany: Fleet Skagerrak SUPPORT French Army Kiel -> Denmark.

Thank you to Germany. He want's out but I'm hoping I can talk him into attacking
Sweden to hold Russia off a little longer.

Italy: Army Trieste -> Venice.
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Tyrrhenian Sea.
Italy: Fleet Albania -> Ionian Sea.
Italy: Army Venice -> Tuscany.

Here he comes. The best thing Italy can hope for is a part in a draw, so he
is diploming up a storm trying to keep me from soloing. Russia is right there
with him, but Turkey is the key. As long as Turkey plays along it will work.
But as soon as he changes his mind, Italy's dead.

Russia: Army Moscow SUPPORT Army Ukraine -> Warsaw.
Russia: Army Sweden HOLD.
Russia: Army Silesia -> Berlin.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Army Ukraine -> Warsaw.
Russia: Fleet Norway HOLD.

Russia's backing right off Turkey and throwing everything at me. The only
surprise here is that he didn't try for the North Sea.

Turkey: Army Budapest HOLD.
Turkey: Army Sevastopol -> Ukraine.
Turkey: Fleet Black Sea -> Constantinople.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea SUPPORT Italian Fleet Albania -> Ionian Sea.
Turkey: Army Greece HOLD.
Turkey: Army Serbia -> Trieste.
Turkey: Army Galicia -> Bohemia.
Turkey: Army Armenia -> Sevastopol.
Turkey: Fleet Smyrna -> Eastern Mediterranean.

If I had anticipated Turkey playing along with the alliance I would have 
attempted to bounce him from Bohemia. As it is, this is bad news. My German
holdings are seriously threatened.

Evaluation:

The whole game depends on how Turkey acts. The longer he cooperates with the
alliance, the worse for me. The alliance can probably break me down and at
some point Turkey will see his chance to solo. The sooner he does this the
sooner the pressure will be off me.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Fall of 1910.  (crosstab.041)

Austria: Army Vienna SUPPORT Turkish Army Trieste -> Tyrolia.  (*void,
dislodged*)

Either some miscommunication here or Turkey lied. There was really no reason
for Turkey not to take Vienna.

England: Fleet Liverpool HOLD.  (*dislodged*)
England: Army Edinburgh SUPPORT Fleet Liverpool.  (*cut*)

Giving up on Edinburgh and bouncing me in Yorkshire would have slowed me down
more, causing me trouble with Russia, but this is as good as anything else
England can do on his own.

France: Army Denmark SUPPORT German Fleet Skagerrak -> Sweden.  (*void*)
France: Fleet Tunis HOLD.
France: Army Munich HOLD.
France: Army Berlin SUPPORT Army Munich.
France: Fleet Irish Sea SUPPORT Fleet Wales -> Liverpool.
France: Army London -> Yorkshire.
France: Fleet North Sea -> Edinburgh.  (*bounce*)
France: Fleet Wales -> Liverpool.
France: Fleet Western Mediterranean SUPPORT Fleet Tunis.
France: Fleet English Channel -> Mid-Atlantic Ocean.
France: Army Burgundy -> Ruhr.
France: Army Marseilles HOLD.

Italy is still telling me I need to play better. Upon reflection I see that it
probably would have been best to try keeping Italy out of the Gulf of Lyon. In
Germany I'm basically shoring up my line in the knowledge that Berlin will
probably fall next year. I'm progressing steadily through England and nobody
can stop me but I'm not sure I'll be able to put what I need against Russia
in Scandinavia.

Germany: Fleet Skagerrak HOLD.

Germany wants out. I offered to help him try for Sweden, but he didn't want it.

Italy: Army Venice -> Piedmont.
Italy: Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea -> Gulf of Lyon.
Italy: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Tyrrhenian Sea.
Italy: Army Tuscany SUPPORT Army Venice -> Piedmont.

From here he can cause Marseilles problems. If he attacks with the army I can
stop him, but with the fleet I can't. I'm worried about establishing the
western Mediterranean stalemate line. I also have to note that Trieste, Venice,
and Naples are all wide open to a Turkish attack.

Russia: Army Moscow -> Livonia.
Russia: Army Sweden SUPPORT Fleet Norway.
Russia: Army Silesia SUPPORT Army Warsaw -> Prussia.
Russia: Army Warsaw -> Prussia.
Russia: Fleet Norway SUPPORT Army Sweden.

He's positioning himself to take Berlin. And with Turkish help he'll get it.
But he's left both Warsaw and Moscow open to a Turkish attack, too. I'm glad
he hasn't taken a more active role in the northern waters, but that will change
if he gets a build. It's almost certain to be a fleet in St. Petersburg.

Turkey: Army Budapest SUPPORT Army Trieste -> Vienna.
Turkey: Army Ukraine HOLD.
Turkey: Fleet Constantinople -> Aegean Sea.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea -> Ionian Sea.
Turkey: Army Greece HOLD.
Turkey: Army Trieste -> Vienna.
Turkey: Army Bohemia -> Tyrolia.
Turkey: Army Sevastopol SUPPORT Army Ukraine.
Turkey: Fleet Eastern Mediterranean SUPPORT Fleet Aegean Sea -> Ionian Sea.

If he were totally playing ball he would have moved to Tyrolia and Bohemia
instead of taking Vienna. The capture of Vienna, the supported move to the
Ionian, and positioning the army in Tyrolia all give me hope that he'll attack
Italy. He has no less than five open centers available to him right now and if
he takes them he can keep them.

Evaluation:

It all depends on Turkey still. I'm convinced he will fight sooner or later.
He's so close to a solo why wouldn't he? If he waits, though, it will just be
trouble for me. The sooner he does it the better my chances for survival. We
went all the way through 1910 without eliminating anyone, but made up for it
by knocking off both Austria and Germany at once. Plus England probably won't
make it through 1911. 

I'm pretty sure I can't solo. I probably jumped the gun on Russia, but it was
just such a good opportunity that I couldn't pass it up. If Turkey takes the
five centers open to him he'll be at fifteen, Italy will be at one, and Russia
will be at three. It won't be to hard for him to solo at that point, even if
everyone turns back away from me. At that point it would be a race between the
two of us. Even if Russia waits until I'm really dead before acting his win
will probably mean eliminating Italy. If he doesn't eliminate him going for 18,
he will weaken him enough for me to finish him off. Russia's survival depends
on how soon Turkey attacks. If he waits a long time Russia will gain as I
decline and Turkey won't have to kill him to get 18.

On the other hand, if Turkey totally plays along and never attacks his allies
it becomes a matter of whether I can get to the stalemate position I need in
the north. That's just too many turns away for me to see at this point. I think
I can get what I need in the western med and I can fall back to the proper line
in Germany, but the northern line is still to far off for me to be sure of it.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1910.  (crosstab.043)

England:   Removes the fleet in Clyde.
Germany:   Removes the fleet in the Skagerrak.
France:    Builds a fleet in Brest.
France:    Builds an army in Paris.
Turkey:    Builds a fleet in Smyrna.
Austria:   Defaults, removing the army in Galicia.

I would have preferred an army from Turkey. It would indicate that he meant to
fight Russia. The fleet really isn't a surprise, though. It will take him a
while to move it out anywhere useful anyway. My fleet is for use in
Scandinavia, but will probably be the unit to remove when I have to. The army
is more necessary. I need him in Gascony to support Marseilles. He's an 
integral part of the western med stalemate line.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Spring of 1911.  (crosstab.044)

England: Army Edinburgh -> Yorkshire.  (*bounce, dislodged*)

He really should have done this last turn, but at this point there really isn't
anything else for him to do. He retreats to Clyde.

France: Army Denmark HOLD.
France: Fleet Tunis -> Western Mediterranean.
France: Army Munich SUPPORT Army Berlin.  (*cut*)
France: Army Berlin SUPPORT Army Munich.
France: Fleet Irish Sea -> North Atlantic Ocean.
France: Army Yorkshire -> Edinburgh.
France: Fleet North Sea SUPPORT Army Yorkshire -> Edinburgh.
France: Fleet Liverpool HOLD.
France: Fleet Western Mediterranean -> Gulf of Lyon.
France: Fleet Mid-Atlantic Ocean -> Spain (south coast).
France: Army Ruhr SUPPORT Army Munich.
France: Army Marseilles HOLD.  (*dislodged*)
France: Fleet Brest -> English Channel.
France: Army Paris -> Gascony.

I'm really pleased with this turn, mostly for the diplomatic results. More on
that below. In the Med Italy chose the right moves to take Marseilles, but I
chose the right moves to take it back in the fall. And as an added bonus, I
will keep Tunis, which I didn't think would happen. There was some worry that
I would lose Berlin, but Russia fell back to cover his home centers so now I
can hold both Berlin and Russia through the fall. I'll still probably lose
both next year. Thankfully I had no interference from Russia so I got England's
last center. I was worried that England might bounce me in Clyde or I would have
ordered Liverpool-Clyde and Irish Sea-Liverpool to give him no retreats, but
this way I make definite progress into the North Atlantic

Italy: Army Piedmont SUPPORT Fleet Gulf of Lyon -> Marseilles.
Italy: Fleet Gulf of Lyon -> Marseilles.
Italy: Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea -> Naples.
Italy: Army Tuscany -> Venice.

This was the right approach to Marseilles. If he had attacked with the army
the support would have been cuttable. He can't keep it and unless he backs up
Piedmont, the fleet might even be destroyed. He could have taken Tunis (and
even had Turkish support to do so) but dropped back to defend himself from
Turkey instead. He also uses Tuscany to cover as much as possible, though
the Turk could have taken Trieste if he wanted it.

Russia: Army Livonia -> Moscow.
Russia: Army Sweden -> Finland.
Russia: Army Silesia -> Warsaw.
Russia: Army Prussia SUPPORT Army Silesia -> Warsaw.
Russia: Fleet Norway -> Sweden.

The movement in the north looks like he's backing up to fight Turkey, but he
might also be attempting to get the fleet into the Baltic to attack Berlin or
Kiel. His three other units are definitely defending against Turkey, who had
an exposed Moscow and Warsaw to ponder. If Russia had attacked the North Sea
it would have delayed me from finishing off England. At the same time he could
have made a supported attack on Berlin and gotten himself a build. Thankfully
he's more scared of Turkey than me.

Turkey: Army Budapest -> Vienna.
Turkey: Army Ukraine -> Galicia.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea -> Greece.
Turkey: Fleet Ionian Sea SUPPORT Italian Fleet Tyrrhenian Sea -> Tunis. 
(*void*)
Turkey: Army Greece -> Serbia.
Turkey: Army Vienna -> Bohemia.
Turkey: Army Tyrolia -> Munich.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Sevastopol -> Ukraine.
Turkey: Fleet Eastern Mediterranean SUPPORT Fleet Ionian Sea.
Turkey: Fleet Smyrna -> Aegean Sea.

Turkey does everything here that he was supposed to do to support the attack on
me, but he had so many opportunities to hit Italy and Russia that they abandoned
the plans to defend themselves against him. In the Mediterranean he ordered the
support for an attack on Tunis that Italy didn't do. In Austria he positioned
his forces to maximize his frontage with me while attacking Munich, which cut
its support and allowed Russia to get Berlin, but Russia didn't do it. He didn't
make any attempt to take anything that wasn't his, leaving Naples, Venice,
Trieste, Warsaw, and Moscow alone. If Italy and Russia had trusted him this
would have been a rough turn for me.

Evaluation:

I did a lot of writing this turn pointing out what Turkey could do. I pointed
it out to Italy, to Russia, and to Turkey. My hope was that Turkey would try
to grab all or some of Naples, Venice, Trieste, Warsaw, and Moscow, and that
Italy and Russia would move to defend them. That would have ruined the stop-
the-leader alliance and been my best chance for a solo. I pointed out to
everyone that if Turkey grabbed those centers he would be at 15, across all
the important stalemate lines, and almost unstoppable. I didn't really want
Turkey to get to that point. But I wanted him considering it and I wanted
Italy and Russia worried about it. As it came out, Turkey was good at his word
and didn't do a single thing against his allies. But they had both gotten
worried enough about him that they pulled a combined five units off of me to
defend against Turkey, and Russia did some additional maneuvering that might
have been anti-Turkish. Now, though, Turkey has been tested and shown faithful.
They won't doubt him again. But will Turkey trust his allies? My guess is that
he will and I will be facing a renewed will to fight me. But a turn to defend
against Turkey plus a turn to get back to fighting me basically buys me a year.

Now I am sure to keep Tunis, Munich, and Berlin this year. That gives me a
build. It was quite possible for me to be removing one instead. Additionally,
Russia's lack of opposition in the north has allowed me to get into a position
where I will take Sweden, Norway, or both next year. I am now confident that I
can get to the stalemate line and guarantee myself survival. The question
becomes can I push the attack through the north enough to still take a crack at
soloing? That depends on what happens next. I've offered a draw to Italy and
Russia, but asked to wait until after England is officially eliminated. That
gives me a turn to see what they do. I plan to keep pushing across the north.
If Russia stays back as a sign of faith and I keep all of Germany, I might be
able to keep going. If Italy, Russia, and Turkey all work together faithfully
against me then I just get to the stalemate line and start voting for the draw.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Movement results for Fall of 1911.  (crosstab.046)

England: Army Clyde -> Liverpool.  (*bounce, dislodged*)

France: Army Denmark HOLD.
France: Fleet Western Mediterranean -> Tunis.  (*bounce*)
France: Army Munich SUPPORT Army Berlin.  (*cut*)
France: Army Berlin SUPPORT Army Munich.  (*cut*)
France: Fleet North Atlantic Ocean -> Norwegian Sea.
France: Army Edinburgh SUPPORT Fleet Liverpool -> Clyde.
France: Fleet North Sea -> Skagerrak.
France: Fleet Liverpool -> Clyde.
France: Fleet Gulf of Lyon HOLD.
France: Fleet Spain (south coast) SUPPORT Army Burgundy -> Marseilles.
France: Army Ruhr SUPPORT Army Munich.
France: Army Burgundy -> Marseilles.
France: Fleet English Channel -> North Sea.
France: Army Gascony SUPPORT Army Burgundy -> Marseilles.

Russia and Italy have agreed to a draw but we're waiting out this year to have
England officially eliminated. In the mean time, though, we all continued as
though we were fighting, which makes the most sense. I kept Turkey out of Tunis
and I kept Russia and Turkey out of Berlin and Munich, which means I get a
build this year. That will help me establish the stalemate line. In the north
I maneuver for the best advantage on Sweden and Norway.

Italy: Army Piedmont SUPPORT Fleet Marseilles.
Italy: Fleet Marseilles HOLD.  (*dislodged*)
Italy: Fleet Naples -> Tyrrhenian Sea.
Italy: Army Venice -> Tuscany.

Tyrrhenian and Tuscany give him a better position on me. Might as well support
Marseilles, in case I make a mistake.

Russia: Army Moscow -> St Petersburg.
Russia: Army Finland -> Norway.
Russia: Army Warsaw SUPPORT Turkish Army Galicia -> Silesia.
Russia: Army Prussia -> Berlin.  (*bounce*)
Russia: Fleet Sweden -> Denmark.  (*bounce*)

Putting the army in St. Petersburg will make taking Norway trickier, but I can
still do it next year. I keep him out of Berlin. Giving Silesia to Turkey is
an interesting choice. I figured Russia would go there and then he'd take Berlin
and give Munich to Turkey, but this looks more like both for Turkey.

Turkey: Army Vienna -> Tyrolia.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Galicia -> Silesia.
Turkey: Fleet Greece -> Albania.
Turkey: Fleet Ionian Sea -> Tunis.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Serbia -> Rumania.
Turkey: Army Bohemia SUPPORT Army Galicia -> Silesia.
Turkey: Army Tyrolia -> Munich.  (*bounce*)
Turkey: Army Ukraine -> Galicia.
Turkey: Fleet Eastern Mediterranean -> Aegean Sea.
Turkey: Fleet Aegean Sea -> Greece.

He's crowding his units up against Germany and into the Mediterranean. I keep
him out of Tunis and Munich. He's trying to get his units where they will be
useful but clearly out of the way of his allies. The only move I don't
understand is Serbia to Rumania. I really don't know what he's trying to 
accomplish with that.

Evaluation:

This is just a study in endgame tactics. Nothing exciting here. They're moving
aggressively to take what they can, but I can make my stalemate line, so unless
they start fighting each other this will be a four-way draw.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Adjustment orders for Winter of 1911.  (crosstab.047)

France:    Builds an army in Paris.
Italy:     Builds a fleet in Naples.

I deliberately destroyed the Italian fleet so he would lose tempo getting him
back into position after the build if the draw doesn't go through. My army
will fill out the line in Germany. My inevitably removal next year would be
the fleet now in Clyde.

---------------------------------------------------------------------