Square Gear Productions

Matthew Welch's College Football Ratings

This is my system for rating college football teams. The goal of this system is to objectively rank the performance thus far of the Division 1-A football teams. It uses only their records from the current season, so early on the ratings are pretty erratic, but as the season progresses they settle down and become more accurate. By mid-season there is enough data to make a fair comparison of teams and at the end of the season this system produces a good assessment of how the teams have done.

At no point are these ratings meant to predict the outcome of future games. And mid season results are not intended to predict where the teams will end up. It simply rates every team's performance so far.

The only data I use is wins and losses from the current season. It doesn't count last year's record or any other historical information. I subscribe to the "a win is a win is a win" philosophy so my formula doesn't count score differences, just wins and losses.

The rating is composed of two parts. One is the team's win percent. The other is a strength of schedule factor counting opponents' average win percent and opponents' opponents' average win percent. You can read more about my philosophy and formula if you want.

A copy of these ratings in a text file is available to download. And please feel free to look over my raw data to make sure I haven't made any errors in my data collection. If I have please contact me.

I am working on making previous results and data available. I will try to keep adding more years, working my way backwards.

Latest Ratings

Ratings including games through 2010-1-8:

 TeamRatingWLRecordOp RecOp Op R
1Alabama0.704371401.000000.570750.54237
2Florida0.678391310.928570.558970.54763
3Texas0.669131310.928570.555600.52322
4Cincinnati0.663551210.923080.526460.54111
5Boise State0.653331401.000000.457330.50268
6TCU0.646561210.923080.512370.50424
7Iowa0.639891120.846150.563300.51021
8Ohio State0.639111120.846150.551000.52017
9Oregon0.624981030.769230.581360.52436
10Virginia Tech0.622711030.769230.568680.53023
11Penn State0.621491120.846150.499900.51842
12Brigham Young0.620551120.846150.483230.53227
13Georgia Tech0.618591130.785710.523520.54654
14Pittsburgh0.614431030.769230.551390.52267
15Wisconsin0.605681030.769230.538860.50895
16Louisiana State0.60176940.692310.568960.54401
17Miami (FL)0.59551940.692310.565410.52880
18West Virginia0.59295940.692310.551320.53521
19Utah0.592681030.769230.478800.53001
20Nebraska0.591541040.714290.537480.52285
21Central Michigan0.588221220.857140.433650.47386
22USC0.58293940.692310.517750.53873
23Oklahoma State0.58114940.692310.532590.51851
24Arkansas0.57741850.615380.584290.53254
25Mississippi0.57534940.692310.496840.53688
26Oklahoma0.57033850.615380.585350.51026
27Clemson0.57028950.642860.552630.51535
28Texas Tech0.56967940.692310.491380.52534
29Connecticut0.56895850.615380.560690.53076
30Georgia0.56839850.615380.554350.53543
31Arizona0.56774850.615380.569010.51883
32Auburn0.56666850.615380.555130.52948
33Rutgers0.56376940.692310.486980.51198
34Navy0.562531040.714290.482050.49125
35Oregon State0.56237850.615380.551180.52055
36North Carolina0.55979850.615380.547070.51693
37Houston0.558591040.714290.461580.49991
38East Carolina0.55284950.642860.512930.50274
39Missouri0.55215850.615380.522440.51863
40Troy0.55192940.692310.484010.47943
41Florida State0.55139760.538460.594930.52078
42South Florida0.55030850.615380.517550.51795
43Stanford0.55017850.615380.490630.54450
44South Carolina0.54732760.538460.575910.52759
45Middle Tennessee0.545841030.769230.368480.49981
46Boston College0.54528850.615380.506310.51413
47California0.54500850.615380.490530.52907
48Air Force0.54301850.615380.520540.49310
49Tennessee0.54223760.538460.554800.53343
50Fresno State0.53913850.615380.502860.49913
51Central Florida0.53747850.615380.497220.49979
52Kentucky0.53413760.538460.513780.55015
53Northwestern0.53104850.615380.439740.53800
54Nevada0.53078850.615380.473370.50358
55UCLA0.52914760.538460.524650.52431
56Mississippi State0.52703570.416670.651530.51290
57Southern Methodist0.52424850.615380.470390.48695
58Idaho0.52198850.615380.448720.50185
59Wyoming0.52110760.538460.519060.50579
60Temple0.52059940.692310.400650.46880
61Notre Dame0.52044660.500000.536020.52531
62Ohio0.51997950.642860.437050.47999
63Minnesota0.51835670.461540.573370.52013
64Iowa State0.51379760.538460.494200.50872
65Marshall0.51059760.538460.501660.49164
66Bowling Green0.50946760.538460.516270.47365
67Michigan State0.50853670.461540.568300.49575
68Texas A&M0.50310670.461540.508810.53895
69Washington0.50172570.416670.557160.53133
70Kansas State0.49867660.500000.495210.50079
71Southern Miss0.49411760.538460.448480.49539
72Purdue0.48898570.416670.531520.51877
73Wake Forest0.48454570.416670.519810.51716
74Kansas0.48441570.416670.536900.49965
75UNLV0.48176570.416670.529270.49935
76Syracuse0.48077480.333330.592840.51615
77North Carolina State0.48069570.416670.507420.51798
78Northern Illinois0.47915760.538460.426920.47206
79Hawaii0.47870670.461540.476440.49813
80Louisville0.47795480.333330.593380.50714
81Baylor0.47549480.333330.583910.50922
82Michigan0.47546570.416670.498820.51088
83Louisiana-Lafayette0.47293660.500000.444570.47421
84Louisiana-Monroe0.47020660.500000.435710.47488
85Alabama-Birmingham0.46548570.416670.490000.48977
86Arizona State0.46153480.333330.531410.51984
87Duke0.46143570.416670.462160.50547
88Buffalo0.45695570.416670.492950.46124
89Tulsa0.45347570.416670.452200.49155
90Louisiana Tech0.45202480.333330.530040.49270
91Indiana0.45122480.333330.518590.50174
92Florida Atlantic0.45066570.416670.451620.48369
93Utah State0.44966480.333330.534620.48104
94San Diego State0.44652480.333330.510580.49564
95Illinois0.44401390.250000.570940.51108
96Colorado0.44348390.250000.563720.51671
97Virginia0.44281390.250000.566590.51184
98Toledo0.44249570.416670.421320.48947
99Kent State0.43334570.416670.402290.48106
100Army0.42945570.416670.393280.47840
101Colorado State0.42464390.250000.525530.49840
102UTEP0.42458480.333330.439790.50061
103Arkansas State0.42386480.333330.457390.48085
104Western Michigan0.41994570.416670.367260.47590
105Florida Int'l0.41813390.250000.534650.46973
106Vanderbilt0.415122100.166670.552470.52621
107Tulane0.41203390.250000.516150.46994
108Akron0.40337390.250000.492950.46717
109Maryland0.401872100.166670.536900.50204
110San José State0.398812100.166670.548500.48125
111New Mexico State0.396193100.230770.464400.49341
112Rice0.393582100.166670.522510.49156
113Memphis0.392782100.166670.543010.46867
114Washington State0.391251110.083330.565710.52471
115Miami (OH)0.376601110.083330.596310.45017
116New Mexico0.374721110.083330.541130.49968
117North Texas0.367082100.166670.473980.46061
118Ball State0.358662100.166670.466770.44253
119Western Kentucky0.316700120.000000.483030.46707
120Eastern Michigan0.309630120.000000.484890.44400

Kenneth Massey (whose rating system is used as part of the BCS formula) keeps a side by side comparison of ranking systems, including mine. David L. Wilson also has a directory of ratings.

Thanks to Peter R. Wolfe for collecting and posting the results of all the college football games.

Here's the standard disclaimer: These ratings are not meant to predict the winners of future games, just rate teams' performances so far. It is certainly not meant to predict the spread or scores of a game. I know of no correlation whatsoever between my rating and scores of individual games, especially since I don't even count scores in my formula. I do not recommend or condone using these ratings for the purpose of gambling. Sports betting is evil. Blah blah blah.